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Since the mid-21st century, solar energy from the global power of the edge of the expensive replenishment, has become a low cost of electricity sources, and may be the current mainstream power sector disruptive impact. Under these shots, various obstacles, including policies, have led to a sudden slowdown in the growth rate of solar power (even if solar power is showing more and more markets and segments) To the more compelling economy. Development also has a very important consequence: all aspects of competition in the field of solar power are intensifying, while putting pressure on profits and returns, while also enabling solar companies to develop their own unique capabilities in capturing value.
For solar energy companies, through the technology to develop their own unique ability is a potential way. A series of drives makes it possible to commercialize efficient components with advanced battery construction. This report describes the background of new opportunities, highlighting the potential of advanced battery technology to create value, and describes the main resistance that may be met by achieving this value. The report further emphasizes that Taizhou Zhonglian Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd., as an advanced technology and efficient solar cell supplier, provides a low investment and low risk path for component manufacturers in this opportunity.
Solar field market background
In the past decade, the solar industry has undergone tremendous changes, summarized as follows (Figure 1):
L2006 - 2011: CAGR is 66% growth from 2.2GW in 2006 to 28.5G in 2011. From 2006 to 2010, the weighted average of global production profits increased from 19% to 39%, while in 2011 it fell to 3%. During this period, solar manufacturers focus on increasing production capacity, while ensuring the supply of polysilicon and silicon channels.
L2011- 2016: The global compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 23%, from 28.5GW in 2011 to 80.5G in 2016; between 2012 and 2016, the weighted average of global production profits fell sharply To 0% to -32%. During this period, solar manufacturers focus on reducing costs, including re-negotiating polysilicon and / or wafer supply contracts, while cost-effective access to new regional markets.
Installed capacity of photovoltaic systems
(GW / year)
Source: PHOTON Consulting (Note: All data is estimated)
Exhibit 1: Annual growth rate of annual installed capacity of PV dropped from 65% in 2006 - 2011 to 22% in 2011-2016
During this period, about 62% to 68% of the crystalline silicon cells / components were based on P-type polycrystalline silicon "conventional" aluminum back-field (Al-BSF) battery structures, as shown in Figure 2. This reflects a number of key drivers, including: 1) low unit capital expenditure when expanding capacity; 2) low operational and technical risk to manufacturers; 3) performance for developers, EPCs and investors And product alternatives to low risk.
光伏技术总览
Efficient
Conventional single crystal
Conventional polycrystal
Source: PHOTON Consulting Note: All data for the valuation
Figure 2: Before the end of the rapid growth phase of the PV industry in 2016, the P-type polysilicon-based battery / component accounted for 62-68% of the crystalline silicon component,
Looking ahead, the next five years, the global installed capacity may stagnate between 70GW-80GW each year (up to 90GW), some areas of the decline will be offset by other market growth. Which will make the production of low profit environment continues, more and more manufacturers will begin to face the cost of cutting costs, capital expenditure limited challenges, but also need to give the product competitive performance.
Installed capacity of photovoltaic systems
(GW / year)
Worldwide installed capacity range
Source: PHOTON Consulting Note: All data for the valuation
Figure 3: 2017 - 2021 years, the annual installed capacity of photovoltaic is expected to 70-90GW between
N battery history
N-type monocrystalline silicon and P-type polycrystalline silicon compared to the technical performance advantage is very strong:
N-type batteries / components are not affected by boron-dependent photo-induced attenuation
N-type substrate on the iron and other common metal impurities more tolerable
N-type silicon-based battery allows double-sided battery design, can absorb the back of the output to produce higher power
It is also worth noting that N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers provide a substrate for truly efficient battery structures, including SunPower's staggered back contact (IBC) battery / components, Panasonic and the world's leading asset equipment company Meyer Burger (HJT) batteries / components, as well as Silfab production of double-sided battery / components, Centrotherm also provides double-sided battery / component technology equipment package.
Between 2006 and 2016, for a number of reasons, most solar manufacturers choose not to use n-type silicon wafer to bring the technical advantages:
As the polysilicon casting furnace capacity growth than monocrystalline silicon crystal furnace faster, polysilicon ingot / chip cost has been lower than the single crystal ingot / chip
The world's leading provider of commercial solar wafers, GCL-Poly, is focused on rapidly increasing the capacity of polysilicon chips and by virtue of its polysilicon / ingot / tablet integration business model to gain share from other commercial silicon suppliers
PV system developers, EPCs and investors, especially developers of large ground power plants, EPCs and investors, are focused on minimizing capital expenditures, and in most of these cases, P-type polycrystalline cells
Looking to the future, due to the entire market environment, the following important changes, the choice of N-type single crystal battery / component of the situation will be more and more:
The gap in the cost of monocrystalline silicon production is rapidly narrowing due to the progress of the monocrystalline silicon ingot process (crucible supply and multi-crucible utilization) and the improvement of the monocrystalline silicon process (diamond chips), as shown in Figure 4
Longji and Tianjin Central Europe and other commercial silicon ingot / silicon chip manufacturers are using cost reduction to expand its monocrystalline silicon ingot / wafer production capacity for the battery manufacturers to provide more monocrystalline silicon source
The Chinese government's "leader" project has set aside a lot of space for high-performance components in the world's largest PV installed market
With the intensification of competition for large-scale ground power plants (such as reverse auction markets), more and more system developers, EPC and investors began to recognize N-type single crystal cells / components more powerful long-term profitability
Total cost of solar wafers
(USD / W P 156mm wafer)
Polycrystalline
Single crystal
Source: PHOTON Consulting Note: All data for the valuation
Exhibit 4: The price difference between single crystal and polycrystalline P-type wafers narrowed from $ 0.04 / watt in 2013 to $ 0.01 / watt in 2021
N-type battery and value creation
PV systems use N-type batteries / components to achieve higher value creation and value acquisition is due to:
B-based silicon-based cells / components have higher conversion efficiency, which reduces the cost of BOS; BSI costs become increasingly important as a result of the decline in component cost in total system cost
N-type silicon-based cells typically have a lower temperature coefficient than a P-type silicon-based battery, which can increase the actual power per watt
N-type battery can be designed to double-sided, both sides can react in the sunlight, compared to single-sided power generation of conventional batteries, can significantly increase power generation
The combination of these factors can result in a 3-4 percentage point increase in the system IRR compared to conventional systems using P-type polycrystalline silicon back-field components. As shown in Figure 5, the above factors are still able to improve the system IRR even after assuming that the price of the N-type component is $ 0.05 per watt. It is important to emphasize that the specific impact of the N-type components on the overall economics of the system should be discussed in terms of specific systems.
Photovoltaic system IRR（%）
Assume that the N-type component is expensive for $ 0.05 / watt
The lower temperature coefficient of the N-type module can increase the power generation by 1%
N-type component efficiency hypothesis high 3.6 percentage points, saving BOS cost
N-type double-sided components on the back of the power generation to enhance the overall power generation by 27%
Conventional P-type polycrystalline component price BOS cost temperature coefficient back power generation N-type single crystal double-sided
Figure 5: In this figure, the NR single crystal double-sided component system IRR than the conventional P-type polycrystalline component system 3.7 percentage points higher
Although N-type double-sided components can enhance the system IRR, or to recognize the system's "IRR period difference" is to assess the value of the system to obtain the most critical indicators. The indicator is the difference between the system IRR and the discount rate, and the discount rate is the basis for system financing. The discount rate consists of a combination of the risk-free rate of return and the risk premium, and the risk premium represents a forward-looking view of the system investor's risk associated with holding the plant. Many factors can influence investors' exposure to risk, including component supplier risk, battery / component technology risk, availability risk for a component based on a particular technology, and so on. If a system based on unconventional technology has a higher IRR but has a higher discount rate than a conventional technology-based system, the IRR period of the unconventional technology system is low, although its IRR is higher The system can create a smaller value, as shown in Figure 6:
PV system IRR (%)
IRR is poor
Risk premium
discount rate
Conventional P-type polycrystalline components
N-type single crystal double-sided components
Source: PHOTON Consulting Note: All data for the valuation
Figure 6: Non-conventional technology Despite its high system IRR, its higher risk premium can lead to lower IRR periods
This chart is particularly important for suppliers who want to provide non-conventional technical and efficient components, and such suppliers should take action to reduce the participation of solar downstream players (system developers, installers, EPCs, especially investors) The expected risk of unconventional technology.
Component manufacturer's low risk option
Some existing solar manufacturers are considering adding N-type single crystal components to their product lines, but when they do so they come to a dilemma. On the one hand, you want to produce new products through its own N-type single crystal battery production line will be involved in many aspects of risk. Want to be successful, manufacturers must obtain low-cost silicon channels, in the new battery technology capacity into as little as possible the amount of money, the development of technical and operational capacity, until the successful output of efficient batteries, and promote its sales and marketing capabilities to ensure that the new Products can achieve sales and price targets. These risks and challenges are exacerbated by the presence of funds and resources in the current business environment. On the other hand, if manufacturers insist on the use of existing conventional technology product line, will face the full backward product and technology risk, when other competitors can be more efficient products with triumph.
Small-scale manufacturers R & D capabilities are limited, financial constraints, if you want to solve the dilemma at the lowest risk, you need to have a highly efficient N-type battery manufacturers to sign a battery supply agreement, and in the enterprise only engaged in component packaging. The approach is to increase the N-type single crystal component production capacity of a low-risk, low-cost way.
The key to using the method is to find the right battery supplier. Good battery suppliers have the following characteristics:
Can be obtained at a lower price N-type single crystal silicon source
A considerable scale of production can ensure that the scale to reduce costs
With excellent performance, product quality and financing ability of the word of mouth
In the middle of these typical features. For example, in 2017, the N-type single-crystal double-sided battery production capacity will reach 2GW, and as many enterprises of high-quality / high-performance packaging materials suppliers, has been established a good reputation, the previous customers are also high Performance N-type battery potential customers.
The information and data contained in this article are from Photon Consulting and are believed to be true. This information has not been verified by an independent third party, and we make no representations or warranties as to its accuracy, completeness and authenticity. Any opinion and estimate only reflects the judgment of Photon Consulting on the date of publication and may change at any time without notice. This article is not intended to be purchased or sold. The purpose of this publication is to provide information only and not to the relevant occupation, investment or any other type of advice. Photon Consulting is not responsible for any information or opinions expressed by anyone in this article.
