Power battery as a new energy vehicle "three electrical system" in the core components, the cost of new energy vehicles accounted for more than four percent, and mileage parameters and other closely related. It can be said that the development of power battery industry has become China's ability to achieve the car "power dream" key. In recent years, China's power battery industry has experienced the 2015 "crazy", 2016 "tangled", 2017 is facing the industry "shuffle" key period, policy and market development of the power battery industry is particularly influential attention.
With the beginning of the introduction of new energy vehicle subsidies to adjust the policy, China's new energy automotive industry to enter the subsidy 2.0 era, the so-called "post-subsidy era." The amount of subsidy is about 20% lower than that in 2016, and the amount of local financial subsidy for bicycles shall not exceed 50% of the central government. According to projections, the maximum bicycle can produce more than 40,000 yuan price difference. At the same time, a substantial increase in the threshold of subsidies, Pratt & Whitney policy turned to the survival of the fittest, financial subsidies to market-oriented incentive mechanism changes.
In the "post-subsidy era", in the whole industry chain in the middle of the power battery business, began to gradually out of the "greenhouse protection", the situation also will "change the day." Not only the back and forth by the attack, and profits shrink, industry barriers to competition increased, the market space has become crowded. 2017 has become the power battery industry, "three superposition" of the special stage, namely, "policy digestion", "price game" and "industry shuffling period."
The first thing to say is "policy digestion". Subsidize the New Deal for the first time the introduction of battery system energy density and other indicators as a subsidy threshold and reference standards for pure electric passenger car battery system, the quality of energy density higher than 120Wh / kg 1.1 times to give subsidies for non-fast charge pure electric bus The system energy density is higher than 115Wh / kg given 1.2 times subsidy. Which makes the vehicle factory and power battery companies directly facing the transformation of products, technical lines and even the production line pressure. In fact, the vast majority of power battery companies in the first quarter of 2017 has been on the product and technical route to varying degrees of adjustment, including cell specifications, PACK program, technical route and so on. These measures to digest the policy, after entering the second quarter is still continuing. Next, the new energy automotive industry is likely to face a new round of policy adjustments, which also test the industry chain of power battery business.
The second is the "price game period". For power battery companies, at present, in the upstream of the industrial chain of lithium carbonate, electrolytes, cobalt and other raw material prices soared, directly increased the cost of the battery manufacturers burden. And the downstream industry chain under the pressure of the vehicle manufacturers, do everything you can to force the battery manufacturers to cut prices, hoping to subsidize the pressure to pass on the slope to the battery manufacturers. In this "squeeze", "double attack" of the embarrassing situation, the power battery companies into the upstream and downstream sides of the "price game", which is very worthy of sustained attention.
The third is "shuffle". In 2016, the power battery industry is still strong momentum of development at the same time, there has been a structural excess capacity situation, the performance of the advantages of enterprises and casting products are scarce, but a serious excess of low-end products. Subsidize the introduction of the New Deal and the industry between the upstream and downstream price game, will further exacerbate the excess. In the policy, market, technology, capital and other multiple pressures, the power battery industry has been caught in a severe "shuffle" period, 2017 is the key "shuffle", the integration of the whole industry has begun from the "brutal growth" Transition to orderly development.
With the new energy vehicles subsidize the New Deal landing, "three superimposed" has become a test of power battery companies can achieve coordinated development and multi-win the key period, but also they face a brutal "knockout." At present, the policy regulator on the face of battery safety, quality, performance requirements are getting higher and higher, fail to meet the requirements of products and enterprises, will be abandoned directly by the vehicle business. In this knockout, the power battery business in the "Red Sea" to seek a breakthrough? I think the following important points:
First, the reconstruction of the battery industry value chain is the breakthrough "three superposition" of the key.
New energy automotive industry as a subversive new industry, can not simply follow the traditional car in the field of upstream and downstream trading relationship to operate. In this bad out, strong Hengqiang knockout, the most critical is to reconstruct the battery industry value chain, the establishment of an open and win-win industrial ecology, and promote the coordinated development of the entire industry. This includes policy, market, industrial chain, business model, capital and technology six aspects and factors, of which the policy and market is "twin engine", technology and industrial chain supporting the key, and capital is a booster.
Therefore, the power battery enterprises in order to break through the "three superimposed" dilemma, we must take into account the use of electric car life cycle value. In other words, from the perspective of the whole life cycle to build a new value chain of the battery industry, not only with the downstream car prices for product development, but also with the upstream materials industry to carry out research and development, manufacturing, in order to form a healthy industrial ecology , To the greatest extent possible to prevent the risk of market and policy fluctuations. This requires the joint efforts of all the industrial chain, not because of individual interests and harm the development of the entire industry. Only Baotuan heating, forming a concerted effort to fully carry forward the spirit of collaboration in order to remove the development of short board, to achieve multi-win-win situation.
It should be noted that, for the coordinated development of the industrial chain, it should be from the perspective of innovative models to think. In the current "experience economy" prevailing circumstances, the vehicle companies can try to introduce the "car sharing" this new application model, pay more attention to running mileage, the use of users, operating methods, and with the traditional traditional automotive application model And promote the upstream enterprises to participate in, so as to reduce the cost of the whole industry chain to promote the coordinated development of the entire power battery industry chain, as well as China's new energy automotive industry in the international leading position to establish.
Second, practice their own internal strength is to break through the "three superposition" of the focus.
At present, the total number of power battery companies in China is close to 200, but can enter the mainstream electric car manufacturers supply chain battery manufacturers accounted for only about 10%, and can enter the international supply chain is rare, Competition process, the power of the battery manufacturing capacity, financial strength, market responsiveness, research and development capabilities, supporting capacity and brand radiation is particularly critical. Those who can not meet the market demand, repeat the manufacture of low-end products, will be in the industry "shuffle" was eliminated.
Subsidize the New Deal to a large extent tend to guide the upstream and downstream industries to strengthen their own capacity-building enterprises to better meet consumer demand. Therefore, the power battery companies need to increase their investment in their own internal strength, quality and safety will be the first place at the same time, to strengthen the process control and optimization, improve the development of the whole industry chain construction, the depth of product technology, technology and route changes, thus A comprehensive reduction in product cost pressures, improve the safety performance of the battery, energy density, magnification performance, cycle life and other indicators.
Third, to maintain optimism is to break through the "three superposition" basis.
Although the entire industry is currently living policy "blood transfusion" drifting away, but also should be optimistic that the new energy automotive market prospects are still very broad. Moreover, the subsidy of the New Deal has been formed to reverse the positive energy to promote the industrial chain of innovation and change. Therefore, the power of the battery business should be optimistic about the attitude of the face of changing the situation, for the breakout, winning the accumulation of enough confidence. It should also be noted that, as the world's largest producer of new energy vehicles and consumer markets, China has accumulated more than one million, accounting for more than half of the global market share. At present, China's industrial structure is facing pressure to upgrade, in the energy security, environmental damage and the traditional situation of excess capacity of the grim situation, the development of new energy vehicles is the development of China's "new economy" an important starting point.
China has become the world's second largest economy, as a rising power, in order to truly realize the revival of the Chinese nation, relying on non-renewable traditional energy development is clearly not desirable. Obviously, "power replacement" is a very good choice.