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Mobile WebSiteThe future of new energy vehicles is not only the Chinese market. China's production and sales volume has been successfully detonated in Europe, especially the German system of large-scale products will accelerate the trend of global electric. This market has achieved a breakthrough of 0 to 1;
The future of the industrial chain investment logic is not only Tesla, but the global car company's colorful interpretation of large companies.
Upstream without borders, the global perspective of supply and demand continued to tight
As the resources are global pricing, lithium and cobalt prices are determined by global supply and demand. According to our estimates, overseas ten vehicle group planning 2050 new energy vehicles totaling 16.5 million units, and are passenger car planning, for the ternary battery pulling effect is extremely large, and lithium, cobalt supply elasticity is limited and more stable. 18 years is expected to Top10 giant electric vehicle rapid heavy volume, will continue to lead to the upper reaches of the tight supply state. Therefore, we should not simply look at the domestic market supply and demand imitation, to keep the upstream demand continued to keep up with confidence, overseas car prices continued on the new energy car is a long-term core stability factors.
Downstream look at the directory, the third quarter of the blowout "directory" market
The number of models released in the first quarter of 1717 continued to decline, the fifth batch of catalog models increased, resulting in sales in June to pick up: So, under the New Deal, the directory becomes a sales constraint switch. According to our estimates, Top5 models (passenger cars) cycling average monthly sales of about 2500, the remaining models are only about 300 units per month, January-May total sales only completed 136,000 units (in the Association), from 70 million units The annual plan gap is large, due to the average model (Top5) bicycle average annual contribution of only about 3,500, is expected to 3 quarter catalog models will be a substantial blowout target pressure, the market will have a "directory market."
Doubles impulse market weakened, the basis of the establishment of logistics vehicle traffic policy
According to statistics, the current core pilot city bus new energy penetration rate has reached more than 80%, the nationwide estimate of about 35%; from the bus catalog models accounted for, accounting for about 1 / 3,2016 about 1/4, 2017 The first half of the rapid decline in shrinking. As subsidies in the next two years gradually zero, the bus to promote the effect of subsidies to significantly reduce the supply and demand gradually return to market equilibrium. Catalog models to reduce the amount of subsidy on the amount of low tide, the bar impulse market will be substantially weakened. Special vehicles 17 years 1-5 batch of catalog proportion from 10% to 30% rapid growth, upstream lithium iron phosphate in the case of bus under the pressure of pressure to move to the special vehicle (logistics vehicles), policy guidance needs strong, heavy volume policy foundation set up The
Tesla is a PE catalyst, joint venture car is EPS real power
Tesla Model S, X as a high-end electric vehicle benchmarking, its spare parts also defined the current high-end electric vehicle technical standards. Tesla model system as a core technology enterprises in the joint venture plant in the amount of new energy vehicles, in technology, technology can be cut into the joint venture vehicle system. So at this stage to Tesla supporting more shows the level of technology and technology, and sales and performance contribution is expected in 2018, 19 joint venture OEMs began to force the production of new energy vehicles into the high-speed growth stage.
