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First, the overall situation of China's excavation machinery market

According to the statistical data of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Excavation Machinery Subcommittee, the 25 mainframe manufacturing companies included in the statistics of January-February 2018 sold a total of 21800 sets of excavation machinery products (including exports), an increase of 14.3% over the same period of last year. The average tonnage was 17.3 tons, an increase of 19.9% over the same period of last year. Among them, 11,113 units were sold in February 2018, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%, and the average tonnage of products sold was 17.4 tons, which was an increase of 22.2% over the same period of last year.

The Chinese excavation machinery market entered a high-speed growth channel from the second half of 2016. From September to December, it rose more than 70% for four consecutive months. The growth momentum in 2017 was even stronger. The annual sales volume nearly doubled. Since 2018, based on the high base, the industry has maintained a steady growth.

1. Domestic Market Overview

According to the statistical data of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Mining Machinery Subcommittee, the domestic market of 25 host manufacturing companies (statistical scope not including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) included in the statistics of the clubs from January to February 2018 totaled 19,270 sets of excavation machinery products, which was the same period of last year. It increased by 7.9% and the average tonnage of products sold was 17.1 tons, which was an increase of 20.2% over the same period of last year. Among them, 9,723 units were sold in February 2017, down 30.1% year-on-year, and the average tonnage of products sold was 17.0 tons, up 21.3% year-on-year.

2. Domestic market brand pattern

In January-February 2018, sales of domestic, Japanese, European, American, and Korean brands were 9,656, 3,503, 3,176, and 2,935, respectively, and the market share was 50.1%, 18.2%, 16.5%, and 15.2%, respectively. Trinity, Caterpillar and Xugong occupy the top three in the domestic market. Judging from the brand structure in the past three years, the market is basically stable, with domestic brands occupying about 50% of the market share.

3. Domestic market product structure

In January-February 2018, domestic sales of large digging, medium digging, and small digging were 3,473, 4,849, and 10,948 units respectively, with market shares of 18.0%, 25.2%, and 56.8%, respectively. Less than 6 tons of micro-digging and 6-13 tons of small digging occupy about half of the domestic market share. From the perspective of changes in the sales of products of different specifications, the sales volume of large digging, medium digging, and small digging increased year-on-year (the minus sign represents a decrease) by 1326, 1158, and -1068, which were 61.8%, 31.4%, and -8.9% respectively. From the perspective of changes in the product structure in the past three years, the recovery of large digging and excavation was significant, and the market share of small digging saw a slight decline.

In the January-February 2018 period, 359 units of domestic wheel digging were sold, a year-on-year increase of 91%, and the market share was 1.9%. From the perspective of changes in product structure in the past three years, the overall market share of wheel excavation is relatively low. For the specific model distribution, wheel excavation is concentrated in small digging.

4. Domestic market concentration

In the January-February 2018 period, the market concentration of domestic excavation machinery was CR4=51.2, CR8=76.0, which was higher than the market concentration in January (previous value CR4=50.2, CR8=75.2). Among them, the market concentration of large digging, middle digging and small digging CR4 was 57.5%, 51.5% and 50.7%, respectively, and the market concentration of CR8 was 83.2%, 78.1% and 77.0%, respectively.

5. Distribution in the domestic market

In the January-February 2018 period, the sales of excavation machinery in the eastern, central, and western regions were 6,309, 7,141, and 5,820 respectively, up 5.2%, 11.6%, and 6.6% year-on-year respectively.

In January-February 2018, there were 6086, 3905, 3157, 1955, 1924, 1646, and 597 excavation machinery sales in East China, Southwest China, Central China, Northwest China, North China, South China, and Northeast China. The year-on-year increase was -6.7%, 9.0%, and 7.2, respectively. %, 22.3%, 34.2%, 14.7% and 78.2%

6. Average hours worked

The average working hours is one of the important indicators to measure the demand for excavating machinery and determine the future industry development. According to experience, the break-even points for large digging, middle digging, and small digging are: 2500~3000 hours/year, 2000~2500 hours/year, and 1500 hours/year. When construction demand exceeds the break-even point, market demand will increase significantly.

According to the investigation and statistics of the excavation machinery branch, the number of attendance hours for excavation machinery in 2017 increased year-on-year, and the trend of changes in operating conditions in 2018 is worth continuing attention.

According to the official website, the change in the average number of hours worked for Komatsu construction machinery in the last three years is basically in line with the survey statistics of the club. The increase in the average number of operating hours of the equipment reflects the increase in downstream demand and provides stable support for market demand.

7. Key models in the domestic market

In the January-February 2018 period, the top ten types of domestic excavation machines with different specifications were shown in the table below. The major excavation market is mainly monopolized by Caterpillar and Trinity, and domestic brands are more competitive in the small digging market.

Third, mining machinery export market conditions

Export market overview

According to the statistical data of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Mining Machinery Sub-Committee, the 25 host manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics of the club from January to February 2018 achieved a total of 2,524 export excavation machinery products, an increase of 108.3% over the same period of last year. The average tonnage of sales of products was 19.4. Ton, an increase of 6.3% over the same period last year. Among them, 1,387 units were sold in February 2017, an increase of 126.6% year-on-year, and the average tonnage of products sold was 19.8 tons, an increase of 9.6% over the same period of last year.

2. Export market brand pattern

In January-February 2018, sales of domestic, Japanese, and European and American brands were 1,540, 52, and 932, respectively, and the market share was 61.0%, 2.1%, and 36.9%, respectively.

3. Export market product structure

In January-February 2018, domestic sales of large digging, medium digging, and small digging were 465, 989, and 1,070, respectively, with market shares of 18.4%, 39.2%, and 42.4%, respectively. Among them, 6 tons of mini-digging sales and 6-13 tons of small digging sales were 319 and 558, respectively, with market share of 12.6% and 22.1% respectively.

1. The world economy is picking up and optimistic about tapping the machinery export market

In January-February 2018, the excavation machinery export market became the biggest bright spot, up 108.3% year-on-year, and the export sales volume accounted for 11.6% of the total sales volume. According to Komatsu's product sales growth rate around the world in 2017, most construction machinery markets in the world are recovering. Major domestic host companies have also strengthened the development of overseas markets. The “Belt and Road” initiative also provides domestic excavation machinery products. Important market opportunities. With reference to the history of Japanese construction machinery development, the overseas market will be the next flash point for China's mining machinery industry, and it is optimistic about the potential of excavating machinery export markets in the future.

2. Misplacement of the regional cycle, demand for renewal in the Northeast and other places to stimulate market growth

By comparing the difference between the increase in sales volume in each region and the national average, it can be seen that in the beginning of high growth in 2016, the growth rate in the northeast region lags far behind the national average.

In 2017, the northeast region achieved rapid growth on a low base.

3. The 2+26 policy is about to end, and the market growth rate in North China is expected to rebound.

In 2017, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the “Action Plan for the Comprehensive Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Its Surrounding Areas for the Autumn and Winter 2017-2018”.

The action period from October 2017 to March 2018 will affect the construction of earth and stone, and some of the projects will be affected. Stop work. From the data point of view, the increase in the sales volume of mining machinery in North China fell sharply in October 2017. Although it recovered somewhat in December, it was still lower than the level in the first half of 2017. It is expected that with the lifting of the ban on construction of earth and stone in April 2018, and with the Beijing-Zhangjiakou Winter Olympics starting construction of venues and other facilities, the market in North China will have a large increase.

Based on factors such as the international and domestic economic situation, environmental protection policies, demand for inventory equipment renewal, investment in mining industry, real estate construction, infrastructure construction, and urbanization, as well as the dynamics of the excavation machinery market, the branch is expected to excavate machinery sales at around 150,000 units in 2018. About 15% increase.