RCCN WeChat QrCode
Mobile WebSite2018 Distributed PV Industry Development Focus
Distributed photovoltaic power generation has the characteristics of low energy density, modularization and other technical characteristics. Compared with centralized development, distributed development has relatively low requirements for solar energy resources; distributed photovoltaic power generation also has nearby power generation, nearest grid connection, nearest conversion, and use The characteristics of the photovoltaic power generation are to optimize the utilization of peak-to-peak photovoltaic power generation, and to solve the problem of power loss during boosting and long-distance transportation.
According to the data, in 2017, China's newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity was 53.06 GW, which maintained rapid growth. Among them, distributed photovoltaic has become a new bright spot in market development, with 19.44 GW of new installed capacity. The National "13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development" proposes that China's solar power generation capacity will reach 110 million kilowatt-hours or more by 2020, of which more than 60 kilowatts of distributed photovoltaics. As of the end of December 2017, China's distributed photovoltaic cumulative installed capacity was 29.66 GW, which still has much room for development.
The report pointed out that in terms of growth potential, commercial and industrial distributed generation will have more room for imagination in the near future, especially in the central and eastern regions, and the industrial and commercial distributed market will have broad prospects. Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that in 2020 China's commercial and industrial roof distribution is expected to reach 40 GW.
With the expansion of the scale of distributed photovoltaics, the problems facing the development of the industry are also highlighted. The benign model and the recycling mechanism for industrial development have yet to be improved. For example, the exploration of business models and access to energy storage have yet to be improved.
2018 wind power installed capacity is expected to achieve growth
In terms of wind power, in 2017, the newly installed capacity of wind power in China was 15.03 GW, which was 22.1% lower than the same period of last year; the amount of wind power generated nationwide increased by 26.3% compared to the same period of last year, and the amount of wind power discharged and the rate of wind rejection dropped by 15.7% respectively. And 5.2 percentage points.
With the declining installed capacity of wind power in 2017, the wind power transfer market in 2018 is worth looking forward to. In the situation where centralized onshore wind power is newly installed, low wind speed wind power and offshore wind power are rapidly becoming the new focus of the market, and new installed capacity will increase.
The efficiency of low-speed wind power development has been significantly improved. Wind farms with annual wind speeds of around 5 meters/second can achieve annual utilization hours exceeding 2,000 hours. The amount of low-speed wind resources that can be exploited in the central and eastern regions reaches 1,000 GW. Currently, the amount of resources that have been developed is less than 7%, and the development potential is huge.
As China’s offshore wind power tariff policy is clear, construction costs continue to be optimized, and supporting industries are maturing, offshore wind power will enter an accelerated period. “The 13th Five-Year Plan for Wind Power Development” clearly stated that by 2020, the national offshore wind power construction scale will reach 10 GW, and the cumulative grid-connected capacity will reach 5 GW or more. With the encouragement of policy and industry confidence, it is expected that the offshore wind power installation in 2018 is expected to reach 1.5-2 GW, showing rapid growth.
The report predicts that accelerating the development of offshore wind power and distributed wind power and continuing to promote the absorption of renewable energy will become the focus of joint efforts of the National Energy Administration and the industry in 2018.
Photovoltaic power generation to build local government has not diminished
According to the statistics, the National Energy Administration approved the first batch of 20 CSP demonstration projects in 2016. However, due to various reasons, there are not many projects for substantive start in 2017.
However, the development of local thermal power generation by local governments has not been weakened. Several CSP demonstration sites have been approved. In addition, a large number of new projects have fully learned the lessons from the first batch of projects and have begun to declare the second batch of demonstration projects. Prepare ahead of time.
According to the plan, 2017 should be the first year of the launch of the first CSP demonstration projects. However, as of now, less than half of the projects have been actually started. With this progress, only a few projects are expected to be realized by the end of 2018. Grid-connected power generation.
The report predicts that in 2018, as the year of closing the first batch of demonstration projects, it is expected that the industry’s overdue project disposal and electricity price linkage policies will be clearly defined. In order to safeguard the seriousness of the formulation and implementation of national policies, the demonstration projects that are overdue at the end of the year will face downward adjustment of electricity prices. However, taking into account factors such as the price increase of steel, glass, nitrate and other products, the final reduction may be 0.03. -0.05 yuan/dry watt hour. In addition, some of the projects whose construction progress is seriously lagging behind do not exclude the possibility of being demolished.
