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Last month, 24 ministries and commissions such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Information Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Logistics to Promote the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market," which mentioned that it will accelerate the development of green logistics. Continue to promote the pollution control of diesel trucks, research and promote clean energy, new energy (pure electric) vehicles, speed up the distribution of charging piles, and build charging infrastructure in wholesale markets, express transfer centers, logistics parks, etc. Encourage companies to use low-carbon, environmentally-friendly distribution models that meet standards. Implement the differentiated traffic management policy for new energy trucks, provide convenience and expand the scope of access, and limit or even limit the number of pure electric light trucks. Promote the upgrading of urban distribution vehicle structure, and gradually establish a distribution vehicle system supplemented by new energy distribution vehicles and small end-end delivery vehicles. This "Opinions" is beneficial to the current development of the new energy-specific vehicle market, which is slow in policy guidance.
China's new energy special vehicle market has experienced a speeding development before, from 2014, the production of 0.41 million surged to 47,800 in 2015. After 2018, new energy special vehicles gradually entered a period of development stagnation.
Source: SMM
The new energy special vehicles mainly use urban logistics vehicles as the main purpose, featuring zero-emission and short-distance distribution. At present, China's urban express logistics industry is mature, and the demand for urban short-distance distribution is growing rapidly. However, for new energy-specific vehicles, road rights are a core point that restricts current development. According to Cui Dongshu's analysis, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Beijing, Hefei and Dongguan are the top five cities with good development and new performance in 2018, and new energy vehicles in cities such as Xi'an, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Shanghai and Tianjin. Compared with 2017, the volume of operations has dropped significantly.
Let's take a look at the batteries in the new energy special vehicle.
Source: SMM
In 2018, the total demand for all types of batteries for pure electric vehicles was 3.05 GWh for ternary batteries, 2.77 GWh for lithium iron phosphate batteries, and 0.33 GWh for lithium manganese oxide batteries. The proportion of ternary batteries used in special vehicles has been increased or decreased. Because of the high cobalt content in ternary batteries, the cost is the most expensive. For special vehicles with little profit margin, the price/performance ratio is worse than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries and manganese. Lithium acid battery. The lithium iron phosphate battery has good safety, high cycle times and low cost, and will be selected by more new energy vehicles in the future.
Source: SMM
Industry insiders told SMM that the current development of new energy special vehicles does encounter bottlenecks. Whether it can be broken in the future depends on whether the existing problems can be properly solved. First of all, the downstream of new energy special vehicles is not based on individual consumers. The subsidy targets are not as clear as passenger cars and buses. Secondly, the promotion of new energy special vehicles varies from place to place, resulting in the development of new energy special vehicles. The uneven situation, at the same time, has invisibly increased the difficulty of the promotion process of enterprises; in the end, the profit margin of new energy special vehicle enterprises is much lower than that of passenger cars. Since downstream customers are not individual consumers, the profit space is limited. . Therefore, even if the new energy special vehicle has many application scenarios and the operating cost is lower than that of the fuel vehicle, it is currently affected by many factors and is developing slowly.
SMM believes that new energy special vehicles have a great role in promoting the city's environmental protection. At the same time, in some fixed driving track applications such as airport logistics and park logistics, new energy special vehicles are more cost effective than fuel vehicles. . I believe that in the future, under the impetus of various policies, local governments will actively release the role of new energy-specific vehicles in the city, and this will also be a market full of opportunities and imagination.
