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Mobile WebSiteHowever, in 2019, only half of the time has passed, but no matter how you and I lived before, our life will enter a new state after 2019.
Many people expressed pessimism about this state, but my personal cognition has strong optimistic expectations for the transportation industry. This optimism comes not only from the specific information of reality, but also from the economic development of the past 100 years. analysis.
After the industrial revolution, no matter how the world economy or regional economy develops, transportation construction has become the ballast stone of the entire economic development.
You can simply review the relationship between the economic development cycle of China and the United States and the transportation infrastructure investment that is currently undergoing the largest trade war in history. One very interesting thing to discover is that during the best period of economic development and the worst. In the period of time, the investment in transportation will have a historical high.
It can be said that the transportation industry has always been in the shadow of the storm: no matter how many industries are destroyed by the external storm or how many pigs fly to the sky, the transportation industry will maintain a relatively stable and concentrated energy location.
There will be many changes in the transportation industry in 2019, among which the ongoing “cancellation of provincial toll stations”
The most striking, the subsequent impact is also very far-reaching!
I believe that everyone has already understood the background of the cancellation of the provincial toll station. I will not go into details here. I want to share with you the huge business opportunities brought about by the withdrawal of the station today.
In fact, in the operation of this withdrawal, the Ministry of Transportation has positioned the technical plan not only to dismantle the main line stations between the provinces, but also to establish a closed-flow free-flow charging model, which is actually a two-step process. go!
And this is just the beginning. Don't think that after disassembling the main line station and establishing more than 20,000 free-flow gantry systems, it will be satisfied. No, the next step must be to establish “discontinuous coverage of road coordination”. One step must be to build a “assisted driving system based on continuous wireless coverage”. The ultimate goal must be to achieve the commercial-grade “automatic driving” promised by the Ministry of Communications by 2035!
There are huge business opportunities in every technological evolution.
In 2019, the overall investment scale of canceling provincial toll stations should be around 100 billion yuan. To achieve such a large-scale investment construction in just a few months is a huge challenge for construction organizers, for equipment manufacturers, integrators and engineering. The construction side is both a commercial feast and a cruel fight!
Compared with the 100 billion feast in 2019, I personally are more optimistic about the three sustainable opportunities that come with the realization of free flow.
The first is the professional maintenance market. Free-flow charging subverts the traditional manual + electromechanical charging model, all of which realizes digital charging. In order to achieve this free-flow charging, a large number of digital devices (RSU, server, storage, camera, etc.) are required. According to the estimation that nearly 100,000 digital devices in each province are distributed on the highways of 5,000-6,000 kilometers in the province, the traditional electromechanical maintenance team has no ability to support this new digital operation and maintenance method:
How to deploy tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of spare parts, how to train personnel, how to repair from faults to predictive repairs, etc. will bring about one to two hundred million professional agency and consulting space for each province.
Secondly, it is based on big data recovery fees. I don’t elaborate here. The basic idea is that digital charging will generate digital evasion fees. It is necessary to use the latest big data and edge computing methods to deal with various new types that may or may not appear. The evasion model, not fully estimated, should have billions of market space each year.
Finally, when it comes to the dispute over electronic license plates, this is simply the pen of the Ministry of Communications. I have to admire the high-profile people in the Ministry of Communications. Everyone knows that the Ministry of Communications has been competing with the GA department for the dominant position of electronic license plates. It can be said that whoever gets the electronic license plate is dominant. The right to control hundreds of billions of markets from the perspective of economic interests.
The Ministry of Transportation has increased the installation rate of ETC from the original 30% to 90% by withdrawing from the station. That is to say, 90% of the vehicles have installed the Ministry of Transportation standard electronic license plate (OBU). In the near future, the traffic violation data mastered by the Ministry of Communications will be more detailed than the traffic police. In this era when the data is king, whoever holds the data will take the lead, and perhaps the power of traffic fines will return to traffic in the near future. unit.
In addition, ETC will definitely extend to the city. ETC-based parking systems and congestion charges are huge business opportunities!
Let's talk about the commercial value brought by the road coordination or the "non-continuous coverage of the ETC gantry system". Of course, this complicated name is personally created by me and does not have official significance!
The offline charging model based on the current ETC+MTC (license plate recognition) has a very obvious inherent deficiency, that is, 100% recognition rate cannot be achieved. At present, the recognition rate should not exceed 98%, according to the annual total of 500 billion. The calculation of the scale of the fee, about 10 billion yuan of fees will not be able to collect or close up, I do not know how to clear the problem.
To solve this problem, the most effective technology is to gradually transition from "offline charging" to "online charging", that is, as long as the vehicle enters the road network, it wants our mobile phone to be online in real time, in my own concept, after the car part The OBU will support ETC and V2X (vehicle coordination) dual mode, in which ETC as a "red network" only supports charging services, and V2X as "blue network" supports other applications of charging and road coordination, of course, this is only me. Personal ideas do not represent the true direction of any manufacturer or organization!
Let's talk about assisted driving. There are two most valuable scenarios for assisting driving:
One is all-weather, that is, through the over-the-horizon sensing network and the on-board MDC, it is possible to make some vehicles can be on the road, such as emergency vehicles and large transportation vehicles, in the scenes that must be closed (such as heavy fog and heavy snow), and I personally think that For the two passengers and one dangerous vehicle, after the assisted driving technology is mature, it can change the situation that it is not allowed to go on the road in the early morning, and even should only allow two passengers to go on the road in the early morning.
The other is formation driving, etc. The specific formation driving skills have matured. According to the latest data, in the case of formation driving, the traffic efficiency of vehicles is increased by 30%, and the fuel consumption of vehicles is reduced by more than 40%. This is a real economic value.
For the value brought by 5G deployment and autonomous driving, I believe that everyone has enough imagination space, and here is no way to get axe!
Finally, I leave a question for everyone. In the 21st century, there are endless technologies, cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, etc. Each technology has subverted or reconstructed many industries, but why only 5G has become the third world. The fuse of the war?
