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On the first trading day after the Mid-Autumn National Day "Double Festival", the black series jumped collectively at the opening. As of the close, the rebar 01 contract rose by 80 points, an increase of 2.25%; the hot volume 01 contract rose by 83 points, an increase of 2.25%, and other black series have Increases of varying degrees. On October 9th, steel analysts believed that there were two main reasons for the jump in the opening of finished products: First, during the Mid-Autumn National Day "Double Festival" long holiday, there were many scraps, steel billets, high-speed wires, narrow belts, coke, etc. on the market. The spot prices of varieties generally rose. At the same time, there are many products in the market that the information that the shipments are very smooth affects the sentiment of the "double festival", which makes the mood relatively more favorable. Second, data from the last week before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day "Double Festival" showed that the apparent demand for rebar and the decline in inventory exceeded expectations, and the accumulation of inventory after the "Double Festival" was less than expected.
In 2020, the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival will be merged. Previously, the market generally expected that the cumulative rebar inventory after the "double festival" might reach 700-800,000 tons, but the data on October 8 showed that the total rebar inventory accumulated 664,300 tons, an increase. Not as expected. From the perspective of the changes in futures prices after the National Day in the past years, the year when prices rose on the first day after the "Double Festival" was greater than the years when prices fell.
Industry insiders analyzed that since September, my country's rebar has dropped from a high of 3,818 to a minimum of 3,499, and the risk has been released. In this context, the superimposition of the above two reasons has resulted in the current jump in the material, but it is still cautious whether the jump can continue. First, on the supply side, my country's rebar is still facing the status quo of high output + high inventory. In 2020, steel imports will increase sharply year-on-year and exports will drop sharply year-on-year. The winter storage faced by the 01 contract must also be very severe. The pressure on the above, but also to face the occupation of funds, these pressures will significantly suppress the 01 contract. Second, on the demand side, my country’s real estate control policies continue to be precise and structured, and real estate deleveraging expectations continue to increase. This has caused real estate companies to slow down the pace of land acquisition. Later real estate investment and new construction growth are still under downward pressure. Therefore, the Mid-Autumn It remains to be seen whether rebar can make a comeback after the festival.
