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The automobile revolution is parallel to the energy revolution, and the next two years will become a crucial stage in the development of my country's new energy automobile industry.
"In September 2019, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Outline for Building a Strong Transportation Country." In February this year, 11 ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Smart Car Innovation and Development Strategy." In November this year, the State Council approved the draft "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)". With these three important documents as a sign, my country's new energy vehicles are moving from the initial stage of development to the intermediate and advanced stage of development."
On November 26, at the media communication meeting held by the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100, pointed out that the three documents are in the same line and focus on solving the three electric technologies, improving safety, and cracking short battery life and charging. Difficulties, expensive car purchases, unsafe and other problems of electric vehicles themselves have turned more attention to the coordination of related industries and higher technologies.
In Chen Qingtai’s view, electrification has opened the prelude to a new round of automotive revolution. Parallel and connected with it are the new energy revolution and the new generation of mobile communications; the support of the automotive revolution is the rapid development of mobile Internet, digital economy and artificial intelligence technology. development of. The integration and interaction of these factors with the automobile revolution provides a technical foundation and rich use scenarios for the electrification, greenness, connectivity, intelligence and sharing of future automobiles.
However, in the face of the deepening changes of the global auto industry in the violent turmoil in 2020, the new challenges from the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in 2021, the new requirements of the "new development pattern" and the more complex growth environment, my country's new The energy automobile industry will also meet unprecedented challenges.
In the next two years, it will be a critical moment for the development of my country's new energy automobile industry.
Therefore, how to grasp the strategic opportunities opened by the "new infrastructure" and promote the development of the new energy automobile industry under the background of the rapid development of 5G and artificial intelligence; further promote low-carbon, how to give hydrogen fuel, pure electric, extended range, and hybrid power A series of issues such as the development and positioning of different technological routes have also become new issues facing the industry.
Capital enthusiasm promotes industrial development
It is worth noting that in the A-share market, the total market value of BYD, a leading new energy company, once exceeded 500 billion yuan; Xiaokang shares (601127, shares) also gained 7 daily limits within 8 trading days.
"The ranking of the company's market value does not exclude the influence of short-term factors, but it largely reflects the expectations of mainstream consulting companies, analysts and investment institutions in the capital market." In this regard, Chen Qingtai pointed out that it can be seen from the market value situation. The recognition of new energy vehicles in the capital market also indicates that the auto industry has entered a period of great change, and the market position of auto companies is being reshuffled, which also provides opportunities for newcomers.
In Chen Qingtai's view, the new car-making forces are the disruptors of traditional cars. Behind the good performance of leading companies in the capital market is the recognition of the transformation of China's auto industry.
"Although the asset scale, production scale, sales revenue, and profitability of the new forces are far inferior to those of traditional giant car companies, the leading new forces in the U.S. and China have been highly favored by the capital market and have objectively exerted an'incentive'. And the role of'reversed'."
In fact, as of October 2020, my country's new energy vehicle production and sales have achieved a “double growth” month-on-month and year-on-year for four consecutive months. At the same time, my country's automobile industry and products have begun to show the characteristics of diversified development.
On the one hand, smart electric vehicles represented by Tesla and Weilai are favored by consumers, and the transformation of the automobile industry has accelerated to enter the middle-to-high-level development stage represented by intelligence and networking.
On the other hand, my country's new energy vehicle market is showing new characteristics of "hot at both ends and weak in the middle". Under the influence of consumer demand differentiation, the automobile market has shown increasingly obvious characteristics of stratification. The sinking market with the advantage of cost-effectiveness and the high-end market with the characteristics of user experience driving have become the new track for enterprises to compete.
"At the beginning of the industrialization of new energy vehicles, the industrialization promotion strategy of'two-end squeeze' was proposed, that is, to promote the gradual squeeze into the middle car market from the two ends of buses and mini cars. Now entering a new stage, there is also a new'two-end squeeze'. The pattern, that is, from the two ends of high-end and economical electric vehicles are squeezing into the middle cost-effective model market.” Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100, pointed out that from high-end Tesla to mid-to-high-end BYD to economical In Wuling, the product structure of new energy vehicles has undergone tremendous changes.
"It is expected that the production and sales of new energy vehicles this year will not change much from last year." In Ouyang Minggao's view, "Despite the impact of the epidemic, the market is much better than we thought, and the international outlook for the future is optimistic. It's beyond our imagination."
Industrial development drives the energy revolution
"Relevant parties predict that in 2030 my country's electric vehicle production and sales will reach 15 million, and the number of holdings will reach 80 million. If this prediction becomes a reality, it will involve the adjustment of energy structure, the construction of smart grids, and the upgrading of transportation infrastructure. The series of problems will be a magnificent industrial revolution." Chen Qingtai pointed out.
In the context of the global carbon peak and carbon neutral green recovery, new energy vehicles are used to drive the new energy revolution, and achieving high-quality development is also the next goal of the development of the new energy vehicle industry.
On September 22 this year, national leaders delivered an important speech at the general debate of the 75th United Nations General Assembly, stating: “China will increase its nationally determined contributions and adopt more powerful policies and measures to achieve CO2 emissions by 2030. Peak, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060."
As the world's largest automobile producer and the largest automobile market, China's latest commitment to global carbon emissions reduction will bring revolutionary changes to the global automotive industry structure.
Data shows that China’s current net carbon emissions are 10 billion tons, which is equal to the global carbon emission target set by the Paris Conference in 2050. To achieve carbon neutrality in 2060, that is, zero net emissions. Achieving such a goal is under certain pressure, which means that the energy storage of new energy vehicles is more needed, and the decarbonization of the energy system is needed.
Ouyang Minggao emphasized that the focus of new energy vehicles is new energy. Originally only talked about electrification, not energy. In the context of carbon emissions and carbon neutrality, it is necessary to transform and emphasize new energy. New energy vehicles must use new energy, and new energy vehicles must be used to promote carbon emission reduction in the entire energy sector. .
"Under the background of carbon neutrality, the future will definitely be (development) of new energy vehicles, that is, from low-carbon to carbon-free, and eventually to renewable energy." Ouyang Minggao pointed out.
Based on the characteristics and efficiency of renewable energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaics, and hydrogen energy, Ouyang Minggao believes that at present, pure electric power has the highest efficiency and the lowest cost. At the same time, charging and swapping should be integrated and developed at this stage. For commercial vehicles, swapping is a good business model. For private cars, charging is the best way in the medium and long term.
In the field of commercial vehicles, Ouyang Minggao believes that the next step is the development of hydrogen fuel cell long-distance heavy trucks, but it still needs to go through a stage. The core problem is to solve the economic problem. At the same time, this year may be the first year of electrification of heavy-duty trucks. Based on the cost of energy use, replacement trucks are expected to compete with diesel trucks.
"In the long run, the goal of the new energy vehicle 2035 plan is to require new energy vehicles to become the main product of the market. According to the 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutral requirements, this goal must be achieved and achieved as early as possible." Ouyang Minggao pointed out. In the future, the advent of a carbon tax will make the promotion of new energy vehicles more urgent, and the future development of new energy vehicles will be better than expected.
"If new energy vehicles are scaled up, and new energy vehicles are used to drive the new energy revolution, the traditional automobile, energy, and chemical industries will undergo radical changes, which will truly achieve a major change unseen in a century since automobiles replaced horse-drawn carriages." Ouyang Ming Gao finally said.
