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After the iPhone12 series went on the market, the shortage of chips has intensified.
According to relevant industry media news: global foundry capacity is in short supply. TSMC, UMC, World Advanced, Power Semiconductor and other major manufacturers have full orders in the fourth quarter, and major manufacturers have even scheduled all process capacities in the first half of 2021.Huang Chongren, Chairman of Chip Foundry One, said: "The current wafer production capacity is incredibly tight."
At the same time, foundry prices continue to rise. China Securities Investment predicts that domestic foundry quotations in the fourth quarter are expected to increase by 10%-15%, 2021 quotations are expected to rise by 20%, and the shortage of supply will continue until next year. Half a year.
With the landing of 5G, Internet of Things, and digital applications, the application scenarios of chips have surged, and the demand has continued to rise. Nowadays, under the influence of the global epidemic, the contradiction between supply and demand is becoming more and more serious. The "butterfly" of chip shortage is gently fanning its wings and causing hurricanes in more and more industries.
Semiconductor boom continues, industry chain companies benefit
Recently, the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) released the "Global Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics" report that pointed out that the global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales in the third quarter reached $19.4 billion, an increase of 30% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 16%. Shipments in this quarter exceeded $17.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, a record high since statistics.
Although the traditional equipment and automobile manufacturing industries declined in the early stage of the epidemic, with the further release of 5G and Internet of Things demand, the growth of 3C electronics manufacturing, and the rapid recovery of the domestic market, the semiconductor market has gradually appeared in short supply and rising prices. Now the semiconductor boom in the third quarter has fully confirmed the influence of the global chip shortage.
Based on the semiconductor industry chain, both foundry and packaging and testing are tight. Enterprises in different links of the industry chain have been positively affected and they have chosen to "attack positively."
In terms of wafer manufacturing, foundry and product price increases have benefited many leading domestic manufacturers, and some companies have made great efforts to "krypton gold."
On the other hand, the semiconductor boom has gradually spread to packaging and testing and other links, setting up more markets for IC-side manufacturers. For example, the power module supplier RECOM has launched more competitive 3D power packaging products in order to meet the needs of more application scenarios, and cooperated with PCB manufacturers to improve performance and help related manufacturers shorten time to market.
At the same time, the continuous improvement of the semiconductor industry's prosperity also derives the demand for related manufacturing equipment.
The shortage of chips has fully exposed the domestic long-term dependence on imports. Under the influence of foreign epidemics, the imbalance of supply and demand has brought more opportunities for domestic semiconductor industry enterprises and will effectively accelerate the pace of chip localization.
For manufacturing equipment suppliers, semiconductor manufacturing related businesses will also usher in more opportunities.
Supply and demand of automotive chips are in urgent need, domestic substitution needs to be accelerated
After the chip shortage has further fermented, the auto industry has also been affected. Recently, the news that "the shortage of chips has caused auto companies to stop production" has triggered heated discussions.
Just today, Li Shaohua, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Automobile Association and Minister of Industry Development, also said that the shortage of chip supply is real, but it is not as serious as reported by some media.
The superimposed influence of multiple factors has caused the contradiction between chip supply and demand to appear concentrated in this time period. According to the analysis of people familiar with the situation: due to the shortage of chip supply, the production of some companies may be greatly affected in the first quarter of next year.
According to relevant auto industry media reports, many auto companies have responded positively to the chip issue:
"At present, Volkswagen and Volkswagen China are coordinating with relevant suppliers and actively taking countermeasures. Customer delivery of relevant vehicles has not been affected." The relevant person in charge of SAIC Volkswagen responded that due to the shortage of global chip industry supply, SAIC Volkswagen’s individual models The production is affected to a certain extent. FAW-Volkswagen also stated that its Volkswagen, Audi and Jetta brands are still in normal production and have not been affected.
A person familiar with GAC Honda said: Currently, GAC Honda has limited production of some models due to insufficient chip supply.
In terms of new energy vehicles, NIO executives said that there is no impact for the time being and NIO has prepared in advance. BYD said: “BYD has a complete industrial chain in new energy batteries, chips, etc., which can not only be fully self-sufficient, but also have a surplus of external supply.”
There are two main reasons why the chip shortage quickly spread to automobile manufacturing. On the one hand, due to the impact of the epidemic, the severe shutdown of production and production has led to a decline in chip production capacity;
On the other hand, online office catalyzed by the epidemic has promoted the growth of consumer electronics, chip suppliers are more inclined to the 3C industry, and the automotive industry originally had a small share of the chip market, but after the rapid recovery of the domestic automotive industry , The chip supplier failed to adjust quickly.
From the perspective of the impact on car companies, the impact on traditional car companies seems to be more serious. In terms of new energy vehicles, the impact of many companies is not serious due to their low production capacity. Manufacturers such as BYD rely on chip self-sufficiency. Affected.
This is enough to see the importance of localization. When the supply of foreign core components is severely affected, the inability of domestic resources to quickly dock is an important reason for the impact on the production of auto companies.
Therefore, whether for car companies or semiconductor companies, localization needs to be accelerated.
Recently, according to data collected by SEMI and the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) from monthly reports of more than 80 global equipment companies:
From the quarterly settlement data distributed by region, the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales in the third quarter were China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and North America.
Quarterly settlement data of semiconductor equipment shipments in major countries/regions (unit: USD billion)
It is reported that mainland China has ranked first for two consecutive quarters. However, as we have seen before: the "core-making" movement of chicken feathers in one place, after all, it is still a mistake. As we saw in this article, domestic chips still have a long way to go. To go.
On the other hand, foreign semiconductor manufacturers, at the beginning of the month, STMicroelectronics held the 2020 Industry Summit, and more of its products are sinking into vertical industries related to power and energy, motor control and automation.
The editor believes: From an industry perspective, domestic chip manufacturers should focus on more application scenarios, avoid homogenized competition, give full play to local advantages, strengthen cooperation with equipment manufacturers in vertical fields, and take a long-term perspective to seize future opportunities.
