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Since the “carbon neutral” goal was proposed at the UN General Assembly a few days ago, on December 12, my country announced at the Climate Ambition Summit that by 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy in the country’s primary energy consumption will reach about 25%, wind power, The total installed capacity of solar power generation will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts.
This is undoubtedly a major benefit for the photovoltaic industry, where power generation costs have fallen the fastest in the past decade.Although this year's new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought a certain impact to the energy industry, the photovoltaic industry still shows tenacious resilience and has achieved rapid recovery. According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, by the end of the third quarter of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power nationwide will reach 223 million kilowatts.
"By the end of this year, photovoltaic power generation is expected to surpass wind power in scale and become the country's third largest power source. The demand for new photovoltaic power generation capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will also be much higher than that in the 13th Five-Year Plan." The speech made by Ren Yuzhi, deputy director of the Energy Department, at the "2020 China Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference" has inspired the entire photovoltaic industry and the enthusiasm for expansion is high.
However, behind the "going fast", the hidden risks cannot be ignored.
"Amazing" China Photovoltaic
Looking back on the development of China's photovoltaic industry during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, Wang Bohua, the vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, made the three-character evaluation "remarkable". He said that the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" is "five years of continuous major events" and "five years of pride."
Before June 2018, my country’s photovoltaic industry was like a fast-moving train. However, the “Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018” issued on June 1 restricted the scale of photovoltaic subsidies and made Photovoltaic development has fallen into a "low ebb."
After "weaning", the photovoltaic, after a round of survival of the fittest, re-enter the fast lane. As of the end of 2019, my country's cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has exceeded 200 million kilowatts. China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity ranks first in the world for seven consecutive years, and the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics ranks first in the world for five consecutive years, and has basically achieved localization of the entire industrial chain.
"In the past five years, the four main links of China's photovoltaics-polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules, have all doubled on the manufacturing side. Among them, silicon wafers have increased the most, more than twice, and solar cells have also increased. Nearly twice." Wang Bohua said that at present, my country has a number of technologies that have reached the world's leading level, with the world's most cost-effective products, and basically achieved localization in equipment, parts, raw and auxiliary materials, software systems, and standard systems.
While the scale has grown substantially, the cost of all aspects of photovoltaics is also steadily decreasing. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the price of polysilicon dropped by nearly 25%; the prices of silicon wafers, cells, and modules all dropped by 50%; the price of systems dropped by about 47%.
It is worth mentioning that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's photovoltaic industry financing environment has improved significantly, and the market value of photovoltaic enterprises has exceeded 2 trillion yuan. In Wang Bohua's view, the increase in the number of photovoltaic equipment manufacturing companies and auxiliary materials companies listed on the stock market indicates that the comprehensive strength of my country's photovoltaic industry is increasing and shortcomings are being filled.
Under the goal of carbon neutrality, many global giants have begun to cross-border layout of the photovoltaic industry. Baidu is investing in the construction of photovoltaic power generation projects in its cloud computing center, and Toshiba of Japan will also increase R&D investment in new generation solar cells...
The International Energy Agency analyzes and predicts that from 2019 to 2025, renewable energy will meet 99% of the increase in global electricity demand. By 2025, photovoltaics will account for 60% of all new renewable energy installed capacity, which is very good. Development prospects.
"In the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual domestic PV installed capacity will be around 70 GW. It is optimistic that this figure will increase to 90 GW. 250 GW, with an annual average of more than 50 GW. Obviously, the latest forecast made by Wang Bohua has greatly exceeded the original expectations.
Hidden risks behind the excitement
In 2020, most regions of the country will have the conditions for photovoltaic power generation to be connected to the grid at a fair price, and the goal of exceeding expectations has also stimulated the enthusiasm of enterprises to expand. Faced with the new wave of expansion, Li Xie, deputy director of the Trade Remedy Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce, is more worried about the risks behind the "overheating".
"my country's photovoltaic industry has changed from a follower to a leader. This change of identity requires a good risk prediction and the mastery of development initiative." In Li Xie's view, under the current severe international situation, my country's photovoltaic industry The industry’s prediction and prevention of risks is far from enough.
“Many enterprise development plans are based on data from foreign research institutions. This fact contains too much risk. If problems are predicted, they will be very passive.” In this regard, Li Xie reminded photovoltaic practitioners, “We must Find a way to make a decision after predicting the supply and demand of the market and preventing risks, and grasp the initiative in development."
Ren Yuzhi also said that the photovoltaic power generation industry chain is long and rapid development will have an impact on related industries. However, international policy changes and the market are highly uncertain. Therefore, the photovoltaic industry needs to increase risk awareness. Relevant companies, associations, societies, and chambers of commerce must strengthen the risk research of the domestic and foreign markets in all links of the entire industry chain, follow up and judge problems in a timely manner, and communicate with relevant national departments to resolve them in time.
As for the iteration of technology, there are certain risks if it is too fast. Zhang Guangchun, senior vice president of manufacturing and R&D of Canadian Canadian Group, said that the technology iteration is too fast, and the equipment needs to be replaced after two or three years of investment, which will generate huge waste. He feels that the entire industry has a tendency to overheat, especially for investors in the manufacturing sector, so they must keep their heads calm.
"Many people confuse the research and development technology of the laboratory with the industrialization of the manufacturing industry. This is a very dangerous thing. If it is not done well, it will be a waste of water. The industrialization of laboratory technology is a process of redevelopment. Technology can get out of the laboratory smoothly. If this is not recognized, many investments will be ineffective." Zhang Guangchun reminded.
In addition to these predictable risks, the photovoltaic industry has to face many practical problems that need to be resolved before expanding. The first priority is cost. In the past ten years, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has fallen by more than 80%, and the more it develops, the more difficult it will be to reduce costs.
Gao Jifan, chairman of a certain solar energy, said that my country's photovoltaics will enter the era of parity in 2021, but as the overall cost drops, the proportion of non-technical costs is also increasing. According to statistics, about 15% of the costs are not controlled by photovoltaic companies themselves, such as land and taxes.
In addition, Ren Yuzhi said that how to continue to expand the scale of the photovoltaic industry at a relatively rapid rate, how to integrate into the power system, and how to successfully participate in the power market are all major problems in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. "As photovoltaics are connected to the grid on a large scale and a high proportion, the problem of consumption will become more and more difficult. This requires the grid and the photovoltaic industry to discuss and resolve." He said.
"Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" needs to broaden application scenarios
According to Ren Yuzhi, at present, the "14th Five-Year" photovoltaic industry-related development plan is being formulated, and a large number of projects and supporting policies will also be introduced. This includes the new energy base demonstration project action plan, and considering the deployment of multiple tens of millions of kilowatts of new energy bases in the Three Norths and the Southwest, promoting the construction of a batch of millions of kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation bases in various places, and constructing a number of them according to local conditions. Multi-mode photovoltaic power generation projects such as agriculture and light complementary, animal husbandry and light complementary.
Ren Yuzhi said frankly that at present, photovoltaic power generation has just achieved apparent parity on the grid, and it is still relatively difficult to fully participate in the power market and compete with traditional energy sources such as coal power. However, it must be recognized that as the market continues to deepen, new energy sources such as photovoltaic and wind power must gradually participate in the power market competition, which is the general trend.
In order to continuously expand the application scenarios, innovative business models are essential. According to Ren Yuzhi, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country will promote the construction of a number of demonstration projects, create new industries and new formats such as "photovoltaic + energy storage", photovoltaic hydrogen production, photovoltaic direct supply, and implement a number of action plans to promote photovoltaic power generation Flower more.
Wang Bohua also said that the "14th Five-Year Plan" should pay more attention to the integration of photovoltaics and other industries. For example, the "photovoltaic + industrial park" realizes multi-energy complementation, integration and optimization, and integrated operation of source, grid, load, and storage. The region realizes terminal integration, combining energy supply, consumption and demand; "Photovoltaic + building" does not occupy land and adopts grid-connected photovoltaic system to achieve building energy saving; "Photovoltaic + transportation" can be used along highways, service areas, slopes, etc. Layout of photovoltaic power generation facilities, "photovoltaic storage and charging" will become the most potential combination; "photovoltaic + communications" to solve the problem of electricity consumption of base stations in areas without electricity and urban grid supply instability.
"In the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China will continue to improve supporting policies for the photovoltaic industry, initially consider continuing to improve the renewable energy consumption weight assessment system and the green certificate trading system, promote the introduction of photovoltaic pricing policies in the era of parity, and do a good job in connecting with the electricity market. "Ren Yuzhi said that under the premise of ensuring the basic income of the project, China will gradually and orderly promote the participation of new photovoltaic power generation in power market transactions, promote the construction of a new generation of power market, ensure the access and consumption of large-scale photovoltaic power generation, and strengthen photovoltaic power generation. The combination of power generation and land use environmental protection policies and the promotion of mandatory national standards for the installation of photovoltaics in buildings.
