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On Tuesday, Shanghai Aluminum’s main 2102 contract continued to decline, with a maximum of 15,665 yuan/ton, a minimum of 15,295 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 15,365 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the closing price of the previous trading day. In the external market, LME aluminum opened lower and moved lower. At 15:00 Beijing time, the 3-month Lun Aluminum reported at US$1988/ton, a daily decline of 2.07%.
Market focus: (1) Trump signed a US$2.3 trillion economic stimulus bill, including a US$900 billion epidemic relief plan. (2) According to China Customs data, China imported 56,000 tons of primary aluminum in November, a decrease of 49.8% from the previous month. The cumulative import volume of primary aluminum from January to November was 933,000 tons. (3) China's net alumina imports in November were 240,900 tons, an increase of 40.02% month-on-month and an increase of 22.74% year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On December 29, spot A00 aluminum reported 15850-15890 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15870 yuan/ton, and a daily drop of 320 yuan/ton. Changjiang Nonferrous Metals reported that the circulation of goods is sufficient, the shipment of holders is blocked, the purchasing demand is sluggish, and the transaction activity is average.
Warehouse receipts inventory: On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 65,281 tons, an increase of 398 tons per day; on December 24, LME aluminum inventory was 1,372,350 tons, a daily decrease of 5750 tons.
Main positions: Shanghai Aluminum's main 2102 contract top 20 long positions 64296 hands, daily decrease of 1042 hands, short position 78403 hands, daily decrease of 3688 hands, net short position of 14,107 hands, daily decrease of 2646 hands, both long and short positions are reduced, the headroom is reduced.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai Aluminum 2102 continued to decline on December 29. US President Trump agreed to sign the stimulus bill. Coupled with the launch of vaccination work in Europe, market risk sentiment has risen. However, there is still a possibility of outbreaks due to the spread of mutant viruses. The recent polluted weather in the north has caused some aluminum companies to suspend production, and downstream demand has declined, and domestic electrolytic aluminum spot inventories have continued to rise; however, the slow pace of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has made inventory growth limited and aluminum prices are facing Callback pressure. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum's main 2102 contract continued to decline in volume, and the short-term atmosphere was heavier. It is expected that the short-term weakness will continue.
