According to the official website of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in January 2021 was 54.4%, a drop of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above 50% for seven consecutive months. In terms of regions, the manufacturing PMI of Asia, Europe, and the Americas all declined to varying degrees from the previous month, while the PMI of the African manufacturing industry increased slightly from the previous month.
According to the analysis of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the comprehensive index has changed, and the growth rate of global manufacturing has slowed down from the previous month, but the index is still above 54%, indicating that the global manufacturing industry has continued the recovery trend since the second half of 2020, and the overall operation is relatively stable.
From a regional perspective, the following characteristics are presented:
The growth rate of African manufacturing has accelerated slightly
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing pointed out that in January 2021, the PMI of African manufacturing was 50.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the recovery of African manufacturing was slightly faster than last month. Among the major countries, the manufacturing PMI of South Africa and Egypt rebounded to varying degrees from last month. The development of the African economy depends more on the degree of global economic recovery. The market generally expects that the African economy will show a moderate rebound in 2021. Whether the epidemic is effectively controlled is also the main factor determining whether the African economy can recover steadily. Compared with other regions, Africa's weak transportation infrastructure and health system capacity have affected the prevention and control of the epidemic in Africa and have also become a factor hindering its economic recovery. The official launch of the African Free Trade Area in 2021 will help reduce Africa’s excessive dependence on external economic development, promote Africa’s integrated development and economic recovery, and inject new impetus into global economic integration.
The recovery of Asian manufacturing is stable
According to reports, in January 2021, the Asian manufacturing PMI fell slightly by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month to 52%, and remained stable at more than 51% for four consecutive months, indicating that the recovery trend of Asian manufacturing is relatively stable. Among the major countries, China’s manufacturing PMI has remained at 51% or above for 7 consecutive months, indicating that China’s economy has maintained a rapid upward momentum, market supply and demand have remained at a good level, large, medium and small enterprises have maintained stable operations, and the market has more expectations for the market outlook. Optimistic; the growth rate of manufacturing in India and South Korea has accelerated, and the growth rate of manufacturing in Japan has slowed down, and the PMI has fallen below 50%.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing stated that the steady recovery of the Asian economy has provided a better support for global economic development. In 2021, major Asian economies will benefit from the effective prevention and control of the epidemic and is expected to achieve accelerated recovery. The official signing of RCEP also provides a strong boost to the economic and trade exchanges of Asian countries, and is conducive to the stable development of Asian industrial chains and supply chains. The IMF predicts that the overall economic growth of Asian emerging markets and developing economies will be 8.3% in 2021. Asia is expected to become the region that attracts the most external direct investment in 2021. However, we must also see that there are still uncertainties in the evolution of the epidemic and global economic recovery, and Asian economic recovery will also face challenges.
European manufacturing growth has slowed
It is reported that in January 2021, the European manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 54.1%, which was stable at 54% for two consecutive months. Data changes show that the growth rate of the European manufacturing industry at the beginning of 2021 has slowed down from the previous month, but the decline is not large, and the overall recovery since the fourth quarter of 2020 has continued. Among the major countries, the manufacturing PMI of France and Italy increased from the previous month, and the manufacturing PMI of Germany and the United Kingdom declined to varying degrees from the previous month.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said that the pressure of the spread of the epidemic is still the biggest obstacle to the economic recovery in Europe. Although European countries are striving to find a balance between economic recovery and epidemic prevention and control, only the earlier and effective prevention and control of the epidemic can a stable recovery be truly achieved. Affected by repeated epidemics and blockade measures, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast for the euro zone. In 2021, regional GDP will grow by 4.4%, which is lower than the expected rebound of 5.3% in October last year. Facing the impact of the epidemic on the economy, the European Central Bank is considering further lowering the already negative interest rates, and has decided to continue to implement a package of loose monetary policies such as the asset purchase plan and targeted long-term refinancing operations.
America's manufacturing growth slows
According to reports, in January 2021, the American manufacturing PMI was 57.5%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above 57% for 4 consecutive months. Data changes show that the growth rate of the manufacturing industry in the Americas has slowed significantly compared with the previous month, but the overall recovery continues in the fourth quarter. Among the major countries, the manufacturing PMI of the United States, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and other countries all declined to varying degrees from the previous month.
According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the degree of economic recovery in the Americas also depends on the evolution of the epidemic. In particular, whether the U.S. economy, which has been severely affected by the epidemic, can achieve sustained recovery is an important factor in the economic development of the Americas. Fed Chairman Powell believes that the U.S. economy is still struggling with the new crown pneumonia epidemic and is still a long way from full recovery. The Fed also continued to maintain a loose monetary policy and continued to purchase assets until the US economy showed substantial progress. In response to the impact of the epidemic, the United States has also announced a national strategy to deal with the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The International Monetary Fund recently predicted that the US economy will grow by 5.1% this year, but whether such expectations can be realized still depends on whether the US epidemic situation will improve in the next few months.

Article information source-China Net