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Mobile WebSiteSupported by expectations of demand recovery, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term
On Wednesday, the main Shanghai copper 2104 contract opened high and fluctuated. The highest intraday was 68,400 yuan/ton, the lowest was 67250 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 67810 yuan/ton, which was 1.54% higher than the closing price of the previous trading day. In the external market, LME copper slightly corrected, as of At 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month LME copper price was 9195 US dollars/ton, a daily drop of 0.88%.
Market focus: (1) San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daley said that inflation is currently too low, and tens of millions of Americans are still in sight. Monetary policy must remain loose for a period of time. (2) At 21:15 Beijing time on Wednesday, the United States will announce the February ADP employment report, which is expected to increase by 180,000. (3) Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association, as of February 26, the non-ferrous metal smelting and copper and aluminum production enterprises surveyed had an operating rate of 90.5%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points from February 19.
Spot analysis: On March 3, spot 1# electrolytic copper price was 67700-67950 yuan/ton, the average price was 67825 yuan/ton, and the daily increase was 1665 yuan/ton. Holders were reluctant to sell at high prices, downstream consumption weakened, and overall transactions were limited.
Warehouse receipts inventory: On Wednesday, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 78,356 tons, an increase of 1,391 tons per day; on March 2, LME copper inventory was 73,700 tons, a decrease of 500 tons per day.
Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Copper's main 2104 contract were 73,084 hands, 3847 hands decreased daily, 78509 short positions increased 4 hands a day, 5425 short positions increased, 3851 hands increased daily, long shorts increased, and headroom increased.
Federal Reserve officials’ speeches continued the recent dovish arguments. The market’s concerns about the Fed’s early interest rate hike have eased and the US dollar index has fallen. At the same time, global vaccination work is optimistic, and the global epidemic is showing signs of improvement, which is good for market risk sentiment. Upstream domestic copper ore domestic copper ore supply remains tight, and copper ore processing fee TC continues to decrease, resulting in high smelting costs. At present, the performance of domestic demand is still weak, but although domestic inventories have entered the accumulation cycle, they are still significantly lower than the same period in previous years; and after the Spring Festival, downstream companies resume work one after another and overseas demand is expected to recover, which still supports copper prices. Technically, the mainstream long positions of the Shanghai copper 2104 contract are lightening up, and the hourly MACD is at a low level. It is expected that short-term shocks will be strong.
Article information source-cable network
