Industrial production continues to accelerate and stable recovery continues

——Yangtze River, deputy director of the Department of Industry, National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the industrial production data from January to February

Affected by factors such as a low base number, the growth rate of industrial production from January to February was relatively high. Excluding the base impact, industrial production has continued its steady upward trend since March last year. Most industries have continued to recover, the equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries have accelerated their growth, and industrial product exports have grown strongly.

First, the growth of industrial production is relatively good. From January to February, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 35.1% year-on-year (down 13.5% from January to February last year), an increase of 16.9% over January and February 2019, and an average growth rate of 8.1% over the two years [1]. From the perspective of the three categories, the mining industry increased by 17.5%, an average increase of 4.8% in two years; the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 19.8%, and the average increase in two years was 5.5%, which was similar to the level of the same period in normal years in recent years. The manufacturing industry grew by 39.5%, an average growth rate of 8.4% in two years, better than the normal level in recent years.

The second is the effect of the policies for celebrating the New Year on the spot and stabilizing jobs and retaining workers. During the Spring Festival this year, the start time of enterprises was generally earlier than in previous years. According to a quick survey of nearly 5,000 industrial enterprises across the country, the average number of vacation days during the Spring Festival of the surveyed companies was 7.5 days, which was significantly less than in normal years. On the other hand, the employment situation of employees is better than in previous years. In the surveyed companies, nearly half of the companies have over 90% of their employees to celebrate the Chinese New Year on the spot, which has a greater boost to industrial production.

Third, most industries continue to recover. From an industry perspective, from January to February, among 41 major industries, with the exception of mining professional and auxiliary activity industries, 40 industries achieved year-on-year growth. Among them, 17 industries grew by 10%-30%, 13 industries grew by 30%-50%, and 8 industries grew by more than 50%. Looking at the average of the two years, 31 industries have achieved growth, and the growth of the industry has reached 75.6%.

Fourth, the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech industries have seen significant growth. From January to February, the added value of equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 59.9% and 49.2% year-on-year respectively; from the two-year average growth rate, they increased by 10.2% and 13.0% respectively, which were higher than 2.1 and 4.9 of all regulated industries percentage point. In terms of industries, from January to February, the automotive, electrical machinery, general equipment, special equipment, electronics, and pharmaceutical industries increased by 70.9%, 69.4%, 62.4%, 59.2%, 48.5%, and 41.6% respectively. In terms of products, the output of major products such as construction machinery, trucks, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic cells, industrial robots, and microcomputer equipment have all doubled; the demand for epidemic prevention materials has increased greatly, vaccines are mass-produced, and exports are strong. Driven by this, medical instruments and equipment, as well as biopharmaceutical products closely related to vaccines and testing kits, have increased substantially.

Fifth, the export-leading role is strong. Affected by the continuous spread of overseas epidemics, the return of production orders to China has driven industrial exports. The value of industrial export delivery from January to February increased by 42.5% year-on-year, contributing 11.7% to the growth of industrial production. The two-year average growth rate was 7.4%, continuing last year. The good momentum of relatively rapid growth since November has strongly promoted the acceleration of industrial production. Among them, from January to February, the export delivery value of the electronics industry, the largest export industry, increased by 48.3%; the export growth rate of major equipment industries such as electrical machinery, automobiles, general equipment, special equipment, and metal products exceeded 50%; foreign anti-epidemics The demand for epidemic products increased sharply compared with the same period last year, and the export of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 92.2%. Driven by factors such as high growth in export demand, the production of home appliances such as notebook computers, metal containers, and refrigerators and freezers has achieved rapid growth.

On the whole, industrial production continued to recover steadily from January to February. However, we must see that the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still spreading globally, the world economic situation is complex and severe, the recovery of domestic consumption is still slow, and the foundation for a full recovery of the industrial economy is not yet solid. The production of some consumer goods industries has not yet recovered to the level of the same period in 2019, and there is still an imbalance in industrial production. At the same time, the recent rapid increase in commodity prices has also put pressure on energy conservation, emission reduction and production and operation costs of enterprises. In the next step, we should adhere to the strategy of expanding domestic demand, continue to stimulate the vitality of market players and consumption potential, rely on innovation to drive high-quality development of the real economy, focus on improving the modernization of the industrial chain and supply chain, keep the industrial economy operating in a reasonable range, and consolidate the steady recovery of industrial production. .

Note: [1] The geometric average method is usually used to calculate the average growth rate.

Article information source-National Bureau of Statistics



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