In the first half of 2021, my country's logistics operation has been on a steady recovery track, and the main total indicators are higher than the level before the epidemic. The total revenue of the logistics industry reached 5.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, and a two-year average growth rate of 9.3%. In the same period of 2019, the logistics supply has shown a further improvement, and the logistics market is in a recovery period. On July 26, the information released by the China Logistics Information Center showed that in the first half of the year, the total demand for social logistics in my country has stabilized, with a total social logistics of 150.9 trillion yuan, a comparable increase of 15.7%.

　　 In the second half of the year, focus on: the impact of the epidemic risk on the recovery, the external economic recovery weakens the export substitution effect, the internal demand base needs to be consolidated, the poor turnover leads to the increase in the cost of storage links, the weak corporate micro-profitability and the lack of stamina. China Logistics Information Center reminds: “In the post-epidemic era, risks and opportunities coexist, but the more important thing is to identify and confirm risks, and to improve risk prediction capabilities and strategic adjustment capabilities.”



　　In the first half of the year, the total amount of industrial product logistics increased rapidly

　　 In the first half of the year, various departments in my country continued to implement policies and the business environment continued to improve. From the perspective of growth momentum, the development of new business formats and new momentum markets is improving. The growth rate of e-commerce express logistics revenue is still higher than that of traditional fields such as transportation, warehousing, and commerce. The total revenue of animal logistics industry has increased by 2%. The industry is still the main support, with railways, highways and other transportation revenues contributing nearly 70% of the logistics revenue.

It is worth noting that since 2020, my country’s bulk commodity prices have risen sharply. The price hikes of upstream iron ore, glass, and chemical raw materials have been transmitted to intermediate products and terminal manufacturing. Although policy measures have been taken to curb excessive price increases, bulk commodities in the first half of the year The average commodity price is still high. Due to the relatively large proportion of imported bulk commodities, the total import logistics volume of my country in the first half of the year was 8.2 trillion yuan, and the current price increased by 26%. Excluding the price factor, the comparable growth of the total import logistics volume was only 3.5%, and the growth of the main categories of goods was somewhat Differentiation, iron ore and natural gas imports increased by 2.6% and 23.8%, but coal imports fell by 19.7%.

　　In the first half of the year, the role of ballast in my country's industrial and consumer logistics demand continued to consolidate, the physical volume of imported logistics continued to increase, and the logistics market continued to expand. In the first half of the year, the demand for industrial product logistics increased more than expected. The total current price of industrial product logistics increased by more than 20%. Excluding the price factor, a comparable increase of 15.9%. The demand for industrial product logistics and the demand for civilian life drove the total social logistics to increase by 14.8%, and the growth contribution rate reached 94.4%.

　　 China Logistics Information Center believes that in the first half of the year, the rapid growth of my country's total industrial product logistics was mainly due to the rebound in domestic demand and the surge in international demand. Domestically, the manufacturing industry continued to recover steadily in the first half of the year. The average PMI of the manufacturing industry was 51.1%, staying above 50%. The logistics demand of the manufacturing industry increased by 17.1% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.5%. Among the manufacturing industries, the logistics demand for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, consumer goods and raw materials industries increased by 11%, 13%, 5%, and 6% respectively in two years, and the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in key industries increased by 14.9% in two years. Industrial robots The output of integrated circuits and microcomputer equipment has increased significantly, an increase of 30-60% over the same period in 2020. The new kinetic energy effect is obvious.

Overseas, the risk of supply chain disconnection in emerging economies has intensified after the outbreak of a new round of epidemics. It is difficult to increase the capacity utilization rate in Southeast Asia and South Asia in a short time. The advantages of my country's industrial chain have been enlarged, driving medical and epidemic prevention, electrical machinery, consumer durables and special purpose products. Equipment export. Take the medical and epidemic prevention category as an example. In the first half of the year, the export delivery value of pharmaceutical manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing increased by 53.5% and 51.8% year-on-year, and the export volume of vaccines increased by 18.4 times. The export value of electrical appliances increased by 29.5%, 51.3%, 83.1% and 35.8% year-on-year.



　　In the second half of the year, the substitution effect of external demand for manufacturing exports may weaken

      According to the analysis of the China Logistics Information Center, in the second half of the year, the international and domestic circulation will be further liberalized, personnel exchanges and cross-border activities will become more frequent, but the epidemic risks and congestion points in the logistics link cannot be ignored. The congestion conditions of overseas ports and other nodes cannot be completely alleviated in a short time. Prevention and control will remain normal, so the supporting role of logistics will become more prominent, and the basic and strategic role will continue to increase. However, my country's external focus is on the impact of the epidemic, and internal focus is on changes in logistics demand, micro-viability and poor turnover.

　　 First, the internal and external conditions of logistics demand have changed. First, the export logistics demand of the manufacturing industry has weakened. Some countries around the world have implemented fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the economy and increased supply amidst a difficult recovery. In the second half of the year, the substitution effect of external demand for manufacturing exports may weaken, which will have a certain impact on the logistics demand of the manufacturing industry. Second, the epidemic has exacerbated the instability of recovery. The epidemic in Europe, America and South Asia is still in the process of spreading. Freight yards, ports and cross-border nodes continue to be congested. The tight situation of cargo sources, container sources and bookings may continue into the fourth quarter. International trade and industrial chain supply chain instability have increased significantly. Third, domestic consumption has not yet fully recovered to normal. The spread of epidemics in various places has impacted the restoration of catering, tourism, accommodation, and exhibitions, and it is difficult for consumption to return to the level before the epidemic.

　　Second, poor social turnover is to be alert to rising inventories. In the first half of the year, my country's social logistics operating costs were generally stable, and the real economy drove rapid growth in transportation costs, but the cost of storage links increased, capital occupation costs, and storage costs increased by about 20%. With repeated epidemics, high fluctuations in commodity prices, and unclear market expectations, the supply chain has increased instability, and the custody link is generally not smooth. The increase in the inventory ratio has led to a general extension of capital turnover, sales cycles and account periods, and an increase in the proportion of capital occupation. At the same time, there is also a large amount of hedging demand, which comprehensively leads to an increase in the cost of the custody link.

　　 Third, there is no significant change in corporate micro-profitability. Competition in the logistics industry is becoming increasingly fierce. The bargaining power of logistics companies with upstream companies is generally weak. At the same time, business costs continue to rise, and corporate profitability has not significantly improved. From the perspective of the logistics prosperity index, the main business cost index is always higher than the main business profit index. The gap between the main business cost index and the main business profit index from January to June 2021 has further widened, reflecting that cost growth has reduced profits space.

　　Fourth, the basic elements of logistics management problems. At present, the uncoordinated and uncoordinated situation in China's logistics operation and development still exists. The macro-stabilization of logistics demand and the weakening of corporate micro-profits coexist. The efficiency of a single link and the low efficiency of integrated logistics coexist, and the price of logistics services has stabilized internally. Externally, the traditional logistics supply is abundant and the high-end supply chain logistics services are insufficient. The basic elements such as land, traffic, taxes and fees required for logistics have been progressing slowly, and the cost of human resources, environmental protection and low-carbon, epidemic prevention and control has increased significantly. These problems continue to restrict the stable and healthy development of logistics.

　　 China Logistics Information Center believes that the continued recovery of logistics in the second half of the year needs to be blessed in the following aspects: First, increase investment in logistics infrastructure. The second is to simultaneously promote policy incentives and market corrections to optimize the market environment. The third is to improve the efficiency of the industrial chain supply chain. The fourth is to further boost demand.