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Mobile WebSiteOn July 30, 2021, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and set the tone for my country's economic development in the second half of the year. It pointed out that it is necessary to tap the potential of the domestic market, support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, and accelerate the integration of the county and township e-commerce system and express logistics distribution system. These two items are closely related to the development of the commercial vehicle industry in the second half of the year. In particular, the proposal to support the acceleration of the development of new energy vehicles reflects the high attention of the central government to the current development of new energy vehicles in my country. It shows that not only will the development of new energy vehicles be adhered to in the future, but the pace of development must be greater and faster!
Specifically related to the commercial vehicle industry, it is necessary to vigorously develop new energy commercial vehicles and accelerate the pace of development of new energy commercial vehicles. In other words, in the second half of 2021, new energy commercial vehicles will be listed as the focus of the development of the commercial vehicle industry. From a policy perspective, in order to implement the call of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the relevant national authorities may have a package of policies that are favorable for the development of new energy commercial vehicles in the second half of the year. This means a new round of development opportunities for the commercial vehicle industry. Is coming soon. Statistics show that in the first half of 2021, my country’s new energy commercial vehicle sales totaled 66,000, a year-on-year increase of 61.5%, which was nearly 40.6 percentage points higher than the 20.9% increase of the commercial market in the first half of this year. The strong development trend of commercial vehicles.
It is undeniable that the cumulative sales of new energy commercial vehicles in the first half of the year were only 66,000, accounting for only 2.29% of the total sales of 2.884 million commercial vehicles in the first half of the year. This proportion is indeed small and not enough to drive the growth of the entire commercial vehicle industry. But from another perspective, just because the proportion of new energy commercial vehicles in the commercial vehicle industry is small, it means that new energy commercial vehicles are far from being developed, and there is still a lot of room for development and development potential. Therefore, new energy commercial vehicles Cars may become a new growth point for the commercial vehicle industry in the future. Especially in the field of commercial vehicle trucks, the proportion of new energy trucks is lower. According to data, 55,200 new energy special vehicles were sold in the first half of 2021, of which new energy trucks (including new energy heavy trucks, new energy light trucks, new energy medium trucks, new energy micro trucks, new energy pickup trucks) cumulatively sold only 12,200 units , Accounting for only 0.46% of the truck market sales (2.626 million units) in the first half of 2021, this proportion is 1.83 percentage points lower than the 2.29% of the commercial vehicle market in the first half of the year. In the field of commercial vehicles, according to statistics, in the first half of 2021, the cumulative sales of buses over 5 meters were 53,060 (of which 28,941 were highway buses and 2,026 were public buses), and the cumulative sales of new energy buses over 5 meters was 19941. New energy buses accounted for 37.6% of the bus market. It seems that this proportion seems to be very high, but it can be seen from a breakdown of the market that it is actually only the new energy bus market that accounts for a relatively high proportion of the bus market (84.6%). ) Due to the pull-up; and in the field of road buses, new energy buses do not account for a high proportion. According to the data from Smart Eyes, the cumulative sales of new energy road buses over 5 meters in the first half of this year was only 2,990, accounting for only about 10.0% of the sales of road buses (28,941) in the first half of this year. In the highway bus segment, the proportion of new energy buses is not high, and new energy buses still have a lot of room for development in the highway bus market (see Table 1). Table 1:
The data in the above table shows that in the current commercial vehicle field, the new energy conversion rate in the truck field is too low, and the volume of the truck is large, which is the main body of the commercial vehicle market. Therefore, the electrification of trucks may be the commercial vehicle industry in the second half of the year or in the future. The key direction of new energy. For example, the current development momentum of new energy logistics vehicles in the light truck field is relatively strong. On the one hand, the growth of express logistics business has greatly promoted the expansion of the urban distribution market (according to the data of the State Post Bureau, as of June 1 this year, China’s express delivery business The volume has exceeded 40 billion pieces, which is close to the level of 2017, and it has skyrocketed year-on-year), while light trucks are the main force in the urban distribution market; on the other hand, the state clearly stipulates that the use of new energy logistics vehicles in the public distribution field shall not be lower from 2021 In addition, the opening of rights of way across the country has increased, and the Political Bureau of the Central Committee has recently vowed to support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles. Therefore, it is an inevitable trend for new energy logistics light trucks to surge in the second half of 2021.
For example, in the new energy heavy trucks, because the replacement heavy trucks charge faster than ordinary electric heavy trucks, the problem of insufficient cruising range is also solved in closed scenarios, and the country vigorously supports the vehicle electricity classification model. Therefore, the order for the replacement of heavy trucks in the first half of the year is There have been more than 10,000 vehicles. It is foreseeable that the heavy-duty truck market will accelerate in the second half of the year. Why? First, because the heavy-duty truck market in the second half of 2021 is not optimistic, companies generally feel that there is a lack of market hands. New energy heavy-duty trucks are undoubtedly one of the focus of development in the second half of the year. Because the replacement of heavy-duty trucks has obvious advantages over ordinary electric heavy-duty trucks, so The replacement of heavy trucks will usher in a new development trend in the second half of the year and will become an upstart in the development of new energy heavy trucks. Second, fuel heavy trucks are the vehicle with the most serious pollution emissions in the automotive sector. They are a fortress that must be overcome in the dual-carbon work. Therefore, the country must make great efforts to promote the transformation of heavy truck enterprises. This is inevitable in the development of new energy vehicles. Hom. Third, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee recently set the tone to support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, which undoubtedly pointed out the development direction for enterprises including the heavy truck industry, that is, we must vigorously promote the transformation of traditional heavy trucks and take the road of new energy development. For the passenger car industry of commercial vehicles, although the electrification of the bus industry has become saturated at present, the largest segment of the passenger car field-road passenger cars, has a low rate of new energy (only about 10% has been analyzed above) In other words, in the field of highway passenger cars in the passenger car industry, there is still huge room for the development of new energy buses in the future. In fact, this can be seen from the latest announcement of the sixth batch of new energy buses issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology this year-bus companies are actively deploying new energy road buses, and the proportion of new energy road buses on the list has changed from the first batch of this year. The 8.5% of the batch rose to 23.8% of the sixth batch (see Table 2). This proves that car companies have noticed that increasing the rate of new energy conversion in the field of road buses is the highlight of the new energy bus market in the second half of 2021 and even in the future. Table 2:
At the same time, as the new infrastructure of charging piles accelerates, the problem of charging new energy buses in the field of highway buses will also be gradually solved. In addition, the recent Politburo has voiced support for the accelerated development of new energy vehicles. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that New energy development will set off a new round of climax! Based on the above analysis, the recent heavy setting by the central government will surely become a strong driving force to promote the development of new energy commercial vehicles, and the development of new energy will surely become the highlight of the commercial vehicle industry. I hope that auto companies can actively improve the technology of new energy products, grasp the policies and market opportunities, and believe that the new wave of new energy commercial vehicles will arrive as scheduled!
