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"Fun to play" leader

Since the advent of PV leaders, it has been a hot spot year after year. However, this year's PV leaders seem to have a lot of suspicions. From the suspension of Delingha and Golmud in Qinghai, to the result of Datong's second phase tender, This always feels a bit unclear. If Datong's second period is too large due to the difference between the winning bid price and the lowest bidding price, then the first Baicheng city that has a burst of 0.39 seems to have this suspicion. In short, from the successful results of the third batch of leaders, we should also be able to find that old state-owned power companies seem to have begun to exert full power on photovoltaic power generation.

The participation of the first and second batches of front-runners by state-owned enterprises is not soaring. High-cost, non-core manufacturing technologies, imperfect industrial policies, abandoning light and electricity, and arrears of subsidies have caused state-owned enterprises to “frustrate”. At this time, private companies acted as the "stone" general role in the term "trick and question" because of its flexible system and the low cost of the whole industry chain. Until the third batch of frontrunners made favorable promises in terms of land costs, subsidy distribution, or abandoning light and power restrictions, the old state-owned power companies started a “wash-up” behavior through various means.

When chatting with a business person who invests the lowest price for a certain base, the old driver said that he rushed for such a low price, and that their company would certainly be in a bidding phase. However, after the announcement of the successful bid, there was no such company. I thought I was awkward. So, in fact, except for the third batch of leaders, they are conventional suppliers, not to mention ordinary players, that is, large players may not be able to join in this excitement.

Actually, the leader markets and the distributed market segments of the two photovoltaic industries are all hot spots, but they have many limitations. The leader is not everyone who wants to participate and will be able to participate. First-tier big coffee companies are forbidden to enter, let alone small players; while the distribution is the intention of the government to brake, according to last year's growth rate, then the subsidy aspect The pressure will become increasingly greater.

Seeing now should understand why household photovoltaics will be the best segment to participate in this year. From the growth rate of last year and the decline in sales prices in the first quarter of this year, industry professionals have forecasted more than 5GW of new installed capacity for household photovoltaics. Analyzed from a quantitative perspective, the size of this market is almost equal to the 5.5 GW of the application leader. Whether it is a business or an individual, as long as they are involved, they can get a share from it.

If we consider home-use PV from the so-called yield rate, you will find that although the subsidy has been reduced by 0.05 yuan/kWh compared to last year, the corresponding cost has also decreased greatly. The specific calculation that the industry has done is: If the household solar PV return rate in 2018 is to reach the level of 2017, then the cost of the entire system should be reduced by more than RMB 1/watt. However, according to the investigation of northern dealers, the system of 7.5 yuan/watt years ago has basically been reduced to 6.5 yuan/watt, and in some areas it has dropped to 6 yuan/watt. Therefore, from the perspective of profitability, 2018 is no worse than 2017.

However, it needs to be pointed out that the production capacity of major component manufacturers is expected to be released after 630, and the corresponding component prices will also have a significant decline. Both component manufacturers and industry analysts estimate that the price of conventional components will surely drop below RMB 2/watt this year. In addition, in order to capture the market’s non-operating behavior, inverter manufacturers will reduce the price of their PV systems in the third quarter. The space is expected to have more than 0.5 yuan/watt.

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