In 2021, the two key tasks of my country’s iron and steel industry are to "look back" on capacity reduction and the reduction of crude steel output. For this reason, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on April 1st "look back" on steel capacity reduction in 2021. , Crude steel production reduction and other work to conduct research and deployment. On August 5, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association announced the output and inventory of key steel companies in late July, showing that my country's crude steel output and inventory data have dropped significantly, and the policy has had a significant effect.

       Zhang Longqiang, Secretary of the Party Committee and Dean of the Metallurgical Industry Information Standards Institute, believes that my country’s crude steel output reduction work is progressing in an orderly manner. Judging from the publicly released information, the specific reduction measures or rules issued by various localities are basically based on actual conditions. "One size fits all" reflects the fairness, justice and operability of policy measures.

　　 "In the second half of the year, when the provinces and cities carry out the reduction of crude steel output, they must consider the reduction task and fully digest the increase in the first half of the year to form a clear crude steel output control target." Zhang Longqiang said.


　　 The work of reducing crude steel output still needs to be deepened

       During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country’s domestic “dual control” of energy consumption has become an important means to break the bottleneck constraints of energy, resources and the ecological environment. The process structure and resource and energy structure are optimized to effectively reduce carbon emissions. Zhang Longqiang believes that reducing crude steel production will help curb the rapid rise in iron ore prices, speed up the industry’s energy conservation and environmental protection transformation and process structure adjustment, will help improve the overall operating efficiency of the industry, and will help achieve the goal of “dual control” of energy consumption and reduce energy consumption. carbon emission.

　　 In 2021, the price of imported iron ore in my country will further hit a record high, completely deviating from the fundamentals of the industry. my country's domestic crude steel production continued to grow, which to a certain extent boosted the price of imported iron ore. In 2020, my country's crude steel output will reach 1.065 billion tons, and supply and demand will be basically balanced. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June 2021, my country's domestic crude steel output was 560 million tons, an increase of about 64 million tons over 2020. According to Zhang Longqiang's analysis, in 2021, according to the calculation of 26 million tons of reduction, the reduction ratio is less than 3%, and the absolute reduction is limited. The impact on the market is more reflected in expectations.

　　 The work of reducing crude steel output is an important measure for the steel industry to further deepen the supply-side structural reform. It is an inevitable requirement for the steel industry to accelerate its adaptation to the new development stage, implement new development concepts, and build a new development pattern. Beginning in July, my country’s crude steel output reduction has entered a substantive advancement stage. According to the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the 2021 Steel Production De-capacity "Looking Back" Inspection Work", on-site inspections will be completed by the end of July.

       Zhang Longqiang said that as the reduction of crude steel production has entered a substantive stage of advancement, iron ore prices fluctuated downward in July, indicating that the reduction of crude steel production has achieved initial results in restraining the rapid rise of iron ore prices, but it is still far from returning to fundamentals. There are gaps, the foundation is not yet solid, and the reduction work needs to be continuously deepened.


　　 Balanced production in accordance with crude steel production control targets

       During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the supply-side structural reform of my country's steel industry has achieved remarkable results. The prohibition of new production capacity is an important safeguard measure to consolidate and increase the results of capacity reduction, and the implementation of crude steel output reduction will further deepen the steel industry It is imperative to lay a solid foundation for structural reforms on the supply side. Zhang Longqiang analyzed that carrying out the reduction of crude steel output, especially under the current "dual carbon" background, will not only help better maintain the smooth operation of the industry, but also consolidate and improve the results of steel capacity reduction and promote green, low-carbon and high-quality development. , The basic conditions and important paths to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.

　　 As the global supply and demand gap is gradually narrowing, overseas replenishment of inventories is coming to an end, and the growth of domestic infrastructure and real estate investment slows, domestic steel demand may decline in the second half of the year. The implementation of crude steel production reduction has an overall controllable impact on domestic steel market supply and demand. On the whole, the current national crude steel production reduction task is mainly undertaken by steel companies in key areas for air pollution prevention and control. The reduction task of Hebei, Shandong, and Shanxi is estimated to exceed 26 million tons, which basically reflects the overall goal of reducing production in 2021.

　　 The second half of the year is a tough period for the steel industry to complete the annual reduction of crude steel output. The work carried out in various regions around the reduction of crude steel output in 2021 is also the key inspection content of the just-concluded “look back” to the capacity reduction. Zhang Longqiang suggested that, first, government departments at all levels should actively coordinate and monitor the reduction of crude steel output, proceed in an orderly manner, avoid problems such as centralized reduction, and maintain the smooth operation of the market. Second, iron and steel enterprises strictly implement the requirements for the reduction of crude steel output, release production reduction information in a timely manner, and rationally organize and balance production in accordance with the output control targets, so as to contribute to the joint completion of the reduction task for the entire industry.