To the car city "cold winter": the laggards who are eliminated are not worthy of regret

According to the latest production and sales data released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September this year, domestic automobile production and sales were 2,356,200 and 2,394,100, respectively, showing a rapid decline year-on-year, down 11.71% and 11. 55%. This is already the third consecutive month of negative sales growth in China's auto market, and in the passenger vehicle market, this month has been the fourth month of continuous decline.
The "cold winter" has arrived, and the entire automobile industry is raging. Is this really necessary?

The whole industry chain encounters "cold wave"

The violent degree of the "cold wave" in the automobile market is unexpected.

Among the top ten car manufacturers in the narrow passenger car retail sales in September, only the sales of Geely Automobile showed a year-on-year growth trend. The car companies with a drop of less than 5% were only Dongfeng Nissan and Guangzhou Automobile. Honda two. Overall, the cumulative sales of the top ten fell 8.3% year-on-year, in line with the market environment.

In the first three quarters of this year, the annual sales target rate of most automobile manufacturers in China was less than 70%, and even the target completion rate of enterprises was below 40%. As the winter continues, these car companies have achieved little hope of achieving annual sales targets.

As the “cold wave” began to attack the auto market, the auto market officially entered the reshuffle period. Suzuki Motor decided to withdraw from the Chinese market this year; Beiqi Magic Speed, which still maintains more than 10,000 units per month, will be integrated due to the break of the capital chain; the sales of Zhidou Automobile will fall sharply and cause a large number of layoffs... In addition, some new vehicles will also face Unable to integrate the situation.

However, this is not the worst case. Lang Xuehong expects that the auto market may be more difficult in the upcoming 2019.

The car market is down, the factors are complicated

In fact, the lack of growth in the auto market can be traced back to 2015. In the first nine months of the year, the production and sales of automobiles were 17.091 million and 17.056 million, the output decreased by 0.82% and the sales volume increased by 0.31%. With the implementation of the 1.5-liter and below-displacement vehicle purchase tax halving policy, the automobile market in China began to recover sharply in October, and passenger car sales increased by double digits for three consecutive months.

In 2017, the purchase tax on small-displacement vehicles in China changed from a halving of the previous year to a decrease of 25%. In the same year, the growth rate of the auto market was as low as 3.04%. As the small-displacement vehicle purchase tax preferential policy was completely abolished in 2018, the market's early overdraft situation was particularly serious in the fourth quarter of 2017, which brought a greater blow to the weak market this year.

The small-displacement purchase tax preferential policy is only one of the factors in the market downturn. The factors leading to the downturn of the auto market are complicated: First, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the year-on-year growth rate of China’s GDP has shown a downward trend, and the growth rate in the first quarter has reached 6.8%, the growth rate was 6.7% in the second quarter and only 6.5% in the third quarter. Secondly, the fuel price in China is rising continuously. The 95th gasoline has returned to the “nine-yuan era”; in addition, the “cold wave” Before entering the automobile market, the capital market has already mentioned “into the winter”; moreover, the penetration rate of China’s automobile sales to the market below the third-line is still insufficient; at the same time, the weakening of the Sino-US economic friction for the growth of the automobile market is also a “snowening”

Of course, even without these negative factors, the era of significant growth in China's auto market has passed. In 2017, China's new car sales exceeded 29 million, about 1.7 times that of the United States, the world's second largest market. At the same time, China's car ownership reached 217 million. Xin Guobin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said recently that the period of rapid growth in production and sales may have passed, and low growth is likely to be the normal state of the future development of the automotive industry.

Resist the "severe cold" to welcome the "warm spring"

In fact, the entry into the "winter" of the auto market is like normal seasons in a year, and there is no need to be completely enveloped by negative emotions. Even the market tightening can't be seen as a bad thing.

In addition, the cold market is also conducive to the industry's participants become more calm. As the market continues to tighten, some issues that have been overlooked during periods of rapid growth are being exposed more and more, which is conducive to introspection and improvement. The decline of the market is always the result of internal factors and external factors. Some external factors may not be able to change through individual strength, but internal problems should be overcome by the enterprises themselves. Reducing costs and increasing efficiency, grasping low-line market demand, and innovating financial policies are all aspects that companies have the opportunity to upgrade.

At the same time, in the "winter", we can not only see the problem, but also see some surprises. Speaking of the market entering the era of low growth, Xin Guobin also talked about the positive factors in the development of the automobile industry: First, the sales volume of the top ten companies accounted for nearly 90% of the total sales, the industry concentration increased; second, the industry The main business income increased by 8.8% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rate of production and sales. Third, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in the first three quarters increased by 73% and 81% respectively, leading the world.

In the "winter", we can test the true strength of the company. In the same "severe cold", there are still enterprises that outperform the market, and even some enterprises can maintain positive growth. The market is tightening, and strong companies are welcoming competition, and midstream companies are constantly adjusting and improving. Only backward enterprises are facing elimination, and those who are eliminated are not worthy of sympathy.

If you have the strength to get the "snowy ice seal", you are eligible to enjoy the "spring blossoms."