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Mobile WebSiteDespite the improvement in demand for containerization in favor of market recovery, the delivery of nearly two 20,000-box super-large container ships (shipyard shipments) will largely curb the rise in freight rates.
After months of chaos, Cargo market activity began to keep pace with the fundamentals. According to the latest monthly report of the Maritime Strategy International (MSI), the chartered market will enter a season where demand is more robust and transportation is more busy.
From the macroeconomic fundamentals, as of now the main routes this year, box traffic increased by 5-7% in the next few months will continue to maintain this growth rate. Compared with 2016, the North-South route box traffic growth is also very strong, trade growth will attract new capacity and idle capacity to redeploy to these routes. As the effect of China's economic stimulus plan began to subside, the Far East's trade volume this year compared with 2016 has slowed down.
In July this year, less than 8000-9000TEU container ship charter market is still weak. To August, the medium-sized container ship transport activities recovery, ship benchmark route tariffs returned to normal.
MSI analysts predict that strong demand for high season will lead to liner companies to lease more ships, most of which are medium-sized container ships, this situation will stimulate the market tariff recovery. Recent data show that the benchmark route tariff has risen, is expected to set the basic for the good support market continues to strengthen.
However, there is a huge gap between the delivery capacity of new vessels and the disqualification of aged vessels in terms of capacity supply. It can be said that this gap is unlikely to be eliminated in the future. At present, the average delivery volume of container ships has exceeded 100000 TEU (125,000 TEU in July), at least every 2-3 weeks a 19000-21000TEU new container ship into operation, this capacity expansion will continue to increase, and will be on the market capacity Growth and trade demand between the impact of the chain reaction.
In the MSI view, if the volume of container traffic has declined (for example, with a year-on-year drop of about 2%), will be less than 12000TEU container ship caused great pressure.
Despite the current market rebound faster than expected, but 3900-12000TEU container ship in the short term fluctuations, will become a growth point of the market. MSI predicts that medium-sized container shipments will rise further after the peak season, and will decline after October.
